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Oil, Inflation and Recession April 6, 2026
It's not the price of oil per se that triggers recession, it's the underlying vulnerabilities that have been cloaked with happy story narratives to keep the game going.
Recessions don't require a spike in the price of oil/gasoline, but spikes in energy prices trigger recessions. This makes sense, as hydrocarbons are the foundation of every industry, from the so-called "green" industries to all the high-tech industries (SpaceX, AI data centers etc.) to transport, plastics and everything else. Recessions have other causes, of course: the business cycle of over-indebtedness and speculative excesses leading to defaults and the contraction of credit and spending, the collapse of speculative asset bubbles, the inflationary spiral of overborrowing to fund "guns and butter," and disruptive events such as plagues and wars. Inflation reduces discretionary income as a larger share of earnings must be devoted to essentials. In a consumer economy, this reduction of discretionary income leads to households borrowing more to fill the widening gap between what they reckon is their rightful lifestyle and the purchasing power of their earnings. This increase in debt leads to a higher percentage of net earnings being devoted to interest and principal, further reducing discretionary income. The eventual retrenchment--reducing debt by reducing spending and default--leads to a contraction in consumption, i.e. recession. Recessions occur when a happy story about the economy that doesn't reflect reality encounters reality. Before recessions, the happy story is always the same: corporate profits are solid and rising, consumer spending is rock-solid, employment is strong, unemployment is low, the household balance sheet is healthy, technology is increasing productivity, and so on. According to the happy story, a recession is impossible, so borrow and buy, buy, buy--stocks, houses, experiences, cruises, buy it all because the good times are permanent. The vulnerabilities generated by over-reliance on borrowing to fund spending and the corrosive effects of inflation are buried beneath statistical trickery: add all the wealthy households to the mix and then take the average, and voila: look how rich the average household is. All is well, borrow and buy to your heart's content. Mix in hedonic adjustments and pixie-dust and voila, 8% inflation is magically reduced to 2.5%. The suspension of disbelief / confidence is the magic of the happy story narrative. As long as people are complacent and confident, they act on the belief that their income and wealth will continue rising, enabling more borrowing and spending. That this is not necessarily in their best interests in the long term is what must be hidden, lest they curtail borrowing and spending because the whole point of the economy is to maximize profits and this is only possible if people who don't earn enough money to spend freely borrow to spend freely. This is where the other magic in the happy story becomes essential: the wealth effect generated by credit-asset bubbles. If people see their house and stock portfolios rising in value, they feel wealthier and are more confident in borrowing and spending because they have this wealth piling up in the background. It's like a savings account that increases without the sacrifice of deferring consumption: in credit-asset bubbles, we get to have our cake and eat it, too. The problem that must be hidden by the happy story is that excessive debt and speculation are self-liquidating: the machinery that makes them work self-destructs by its very nature. Debt accrues interest which reduces discretionary income which sets up contraction of credit and consumption, and all credit-asset bubbles pop, regardless of the intensity of the propaganda / happy story that this isn't a bubble, it's "capitalism" or "technology" or "animal spirits." It's not a specific price point or metric that causes recession: it's the decay of confidence and discretionary income that leads to recession. Confidence is fragile by its very nature. We've been selected to be wary of surplus suddenly becoming scarcity, and rising prices of energy cascading through the entire economy activates a reappraisal of our complacent confidence. Every business is hammered by rising costs for literally everything they buy to operate, and since the discretionary income of the bottom 80% is already under pressure, they can't raise prices much without losing sales. Households feel the pinch of rising utilities and fuel immediately, and for both enterprises and households, confidence in the future is at risk of eroding like a sand castle in a rising tide. Here is a chart of the average price of gasoline in the US from 1976 to February 2026. I've added the recent spike to the current average price of $4.11 / gallon. Interestingly, this is pretty close to the inflation-adjusted price of gasoline in the 1973-74 Gas Crisis, and the nominal price in July 2008. Adjusted for inflation, $4.11 in July 2008 is $6.11 in today's dollars. 
The point I want to make here is that there is no price trigger for recession, as it depends on the underlying fragilities and vulnerabilities of the economy. Put another way, it depends on the width of the gap between the happy story narrative intended to keep confidence and complacency high and the realities of higher costs and rising debt service reducing discretionary income. Credit-asset bubbles pop for many reasons, but what we experience is a collapse of confidence that the bubble will continue inflating, making us richer every day, in every way. The core fragility of today's economy is the expansion of consumption now depends on the spending of the top 10%, who just so happen to own the lion's share of income-producing assets such as real estate, stocks, corporate bonds and enterprises. Once the Everything Bubble pops, the confidence of the top earners and spenders will collapse, leading to a decline in their borrowing and spending. 
Oil doesn't need to hit $147/barrel and gasoline doesn't need to reach $6/gallon to trigger a recession. (Gasoline is over $6/gallon in California and over $5/gallon in states with high fuel taxes.) There is no specific price-point, any more than there is some specific metric that enables us to predict an avalanche. It all depends on the underlying vulnerabilities and excesses of the economy at that moment in time. When he's confident, Wile can walk on air. It's when he suddenly discerns reality that his confidence vanishes. Recessions always catch conventional economists by surprise because the collapse of confidence triggers a sudden rise in unemployment and defaults and a sharp decline of credit and spending. 
It's not the price of oil per se that causes a recession, it's the underlying vulnerabilities that have been cloaked with happy story narratives to keep the game going. New Podcast: Self-Liquidating Systems, Parallel Worlds, and AI Doesn't Live In A Moral Universe (Leafbox) Apple podcast My book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free) Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com Subscribe to my Substack for free My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. THE REVOLUTION TRILOGY: Investing In Revolution Ultra-Processed Life The Mythology of Progress Systemic Problems/Solutions Investing In Revolution (2025) Introduction (free) The Mythology of Progress (2024) Introduction (free) Global Crisis, National Renewal (2021) Introduction (free) Money and Work Unchained (2017) Introduction (free) A Radically Beneficial World (2015) Introduction (free) What You Can Do Yourself Ultra-Processed Life (2025) Introduction (free) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century (2022) Introduction (free) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal (2022) Introduction (free) Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy (2014) Intro (free) Novels The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher Intro (free) The Secret Life of an Asian Heroine First chapters (free) Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free Investing In Revolution print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (145 pages, 2025) 
Only now do we see that we've been investing in revolution for decades--not the revolutions we thought we were investing in, revolutions in technology and finance, but in the social revolution made inevitable by the extremes that we've reached in our single-minded pursuit of private gains.
The pendulum that we've pushed to an extreme will swing to the opposite extreme, and the artifices that have propped up a facade a stability for decades will accelerate the disorder rather than reverse it. We now stand at the point of decision, and this book offers a path to a reformation and renewal that serves the shared interests of us all, not just the few. Introduction (free) Ultra-Processed Life print $16, (Kindle $7.95, audiobook, Hardcover $20 (129 pages, 2025) 
Ultra-Processed Life: the substitution of a synthetic, commoditized, very profitable facsimile for what was once authentic.
Ultra-Processed Life is my term for everything that is analogous to ultra-processed snacks: attractively marketed, instantly alluring, easy to consume, addictive by design, tasty in the moment but harmful over time, its origins a black box of unknown processes, the brightly colored product bearing no resemblance to the real-world ingredients, an idealized form of what is inherently imperfect, untethered from the natural world. As with many others, the catalyst for my exploration was a life-threatening medical crisis that did not have a specific cause. This led me to wonder if our entire way of life is like an ultra-processed snack: tasty but not healthy, edible but stripped of the nutrients we need to be healthy, addictive by design. Introduction (free) The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $20, (Kindle $9.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) audiobook, Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) 
What if the policies to accelerate growth are no longer working because our fix for every problem--growth at any cost--is failing? We're told Progress is inevitable as a result of technology, but everyday life is getting harder, not easier--the opposite of Progress, what I call Anti-Progress.
What if the real source of the unraveling is far deeper than economics or politics? What if the problem is what we see as the inevitable destiny of humanity--Progress--is actually a modern mythology, disconnected from the real-world consequences of growth for growth's sake? We indignantly reject that Progress is a mythology, but our need for mythology hasn't gone away because we've mastered technology; we've created a modern mythology of technology that is heedless of its own consequences. To truly progress, we need a new mythology aligned to 21st century realities. Read the Introduction and first chapter for free
Recent entries: Oil, Inflation and Recession April 6, 2026 The Inevitability of the AI Depression April 3, 2026 Disney World's New Theme Park: The White House and Congress April 1, 2026 The "Good News" Is Always the Same: the Stock Market Is Up--Until It Isn't March 30, 2026 Is a "Democracy" That's For Sale Still a Democracy? No, It's an Oligarchy March 27, 2026 The Illusion of the Shortcut (Self-Employment Series) March 25, 2026 The AI Depression March 24, 2026 Risk and Privilege March 23, 2026 Welcome to the Stockyard of Unaffordability March 20, 2026 Why Credit Creates Bubbles That Break the Economy March 18, 2026 Why AI Malware (and Harmful Second Order Effects) Are Out of Control March 16, 2026 This Polycrisis Is Unique March 13, 2026 Paging Nostradamus: You Have a Margin Call March 11, 2026 Iran, En-Lai, Napoleon, Mike Tyson and Model Collapse March 9, 2026
Perverse Incentives Have Created a Runaway Media Monster
March 6, 2026
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Smith's Neofeudalism Principle #1: If the citizenry cannot replace a kleptocratic authoritarian government and/or limit the power of the financial Aristocracy at the ballot box, the nation is a democracy in name only. The Smith Corollary to Metcalfe's Law (The Network Effect): the value of the network is created not just by the number of connected devices/users but by the value of the information and knowledge shared by users in sub-networks and in the entire network. (CHS, 4/6/16) My Credo of Liberation: I no longer care if the power centers of our society--the distant, fortified castles of our financial feudal system--are changed by my actions, for I am liberated by the act of resistance. I am no longer complicit in perpetuating fraudulent feudalism and the pathology of concentrated power. I no longer covet signifiers of membership in the Upper Caste that serves the plutocracy. I am liberated from self-destructive consumerist-State financialization and the delusion that debt servitude and obedience to sociopathological Elites serve my self-interests. (Thank you, Klaus-Peter L., for reminding me) "We've become a culture of excuses rather than solutions: solutions always require sustained effort and discipline." (CHS 4/9/16) "Fraud as a way of life caters an extravagant banquet of consequences." (CHS 4/14/16) "Creativity = problem solving = value creation." (CHS 6/4/16) "Truth is powerful because it is the core dynamic of solving problems." (CHS 7/21/17) "We live in a system of human emotions that masquerades as a science (economics)." (CHS 1/1/18) "Always remember, your focus determines your reality." (George Lucas) "Diversity is for poor people. Sameness is for the successful." (GFB) "When power dissipates suddenly, it dissipates completely." (CHS 7/14/19) "Disobedience is the true foundation of liberty. The obedient must be slaves." (Henry David Thoreau) "Markets cannot price in the value of non-monetized natural assets such as diverse ecosystems." (CHS 7/14/19) "Magical thinking isn't optimism, it is folly." CHS 1/3/22) "Tune in (to self-reliance), drop out (of hyper-consumerism and debt-serfdom) and turn on (to relocalizing capital and agency)." (CHS 1/5/22) "The path to everything you desire starts here: like yourself as you are right now." (CHS 11/20/22) "There are only two signals: how many essentials you produce and share and if you're consuming less with better results. Everything else is noise." (CHS 12/17/22) "Liberation is no longer needing any confirmation or feedback from others or the world for one's sense of self. Wealth, fame, recognition, admiration, praise, prestige, approval, sainthood, martyrdom, success: none are needed, none are desired." (CHS 12/26/22) "When fame, wealth, prestige, status and glory are out of reach, you're free to pursue other more valuable things." (CHS 2/6/22) "It is the sacred duty of every activist who seeks to better their community to grow and share as much life-giving food as is humanly possible." (CHS 6/15/23) "Being anonymous, gray and unknown is the ideal state of freedom." (CHS 3/15/24) "We seem to have entered a world of anti-leisure and anti-productivity in which the unpaid shadow work demanded to keep all the complicated digital bits in motion obliterate our leisure and productivity." CHS (5/22/24) "It is axiomatic that failing systems work the best just before they fail catastrophically." Ray W. "Looking younger is mere technique; thinking younger demands creativity." CHS (10/16/24) "Tell me what's taboo and I'll tell you the truths that threaten the status quo." CHS (12/15/24) "This is the core of the Attention Economy: the ultimate addiction is the addiction to ourselves." CHS (1/28/25) "If You Seek the Truth, Look for What's Taboo." CHS (7/18/25) "My definition of self-reliance: the less you need, the easier it is to get what you need." CHS (7/26/25) "Mastery requires reading and doing." CHS (7/28/25) "The replacement of authentic value, quality, agency, choice, trust, legitimacy and experience with self-serving facsimiles is the key dynamic of Ultra-Processed Life, my term for the present-day human condition." CHS (8/12/25) "Ultra-Processed Life replaces an authentic experience with a synthetic, simulated, commoditized, highly profitable version that's superficially attractive but destructive over the long term." CHS (8/12/25) "What we see everywhere is the replacement of authentic things--including democracy--with synthetic facsimiles designed to maintain the illusion of choice and value." CHS (8/12/25) "Sometimes certainty is the enemy we don't even see and uncertainty is our most faithful ally." CHS (9/20/25) "Sanitized, homogenized, synthesized Ultra-Processed Life isn't more fun; it's just more profitable." CHS (4/6/26) "AI is ultra-processed cognition." CHS (4/6/26) |
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