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I'll Turn Bullish When This Happens April 13, 2026
I will enthusiastically join the Bulls when we replace a guaranteed-to-bankrupt-us Sickcare system and we rebalance the extreme asymmetries of Capital and Labor.
Being permanently bullish is profitable because "markets go up." This is more than enough reason to be permanently bullish, of course, but being persnickety, I prefer there actually being some economic basis for being bullish other than memes (markets go up, the Fed has our back, AI, super-abundance is all around us, etc.). Some things I consider super-bullish are impossible. Two come to mind: 1. We collectively conclude Waste isn't "Growth" and start rewarding durability and repairability rather than planned obsolescence and the Everything is Disposable Landfill Economy. 2. Creating more "money" out of thin air isn't actually a "solution" to every problem. But since these two delusions are the foundation of the status quo economy / financial realm, replacing the Waste is Growth landfill Economy and we print our way to prosperity with a non-delusional alternative isn't going to happen. So let's turn to what's a longshot but maybe, just maybe, possible if a revolution of clear-eyed sanity sweeps the land and rationality replaces fantasy... OK, these are impossible, too. 1. Sickcare is replaced by a sustainable, affordable system of healthcare that rewards health rather than profiting from illness, disease, needless procedures, outright fraud, legalized fraud, denials of claims, paper-shuffling, etc. As I've noted for two decades, "healthcare" will bankrupt the nation all by itself. Bankruptcy U.S.A.: Medicare, Greed and Collapse (July 5, 2006) A Partial Answer to National Health Care (November 11, 2006) Sickcare Will Bankrupt the Nation--And Soon (March 21, 2011) There are solutions, but they're "impossible" because they would take away the bottomless federal feeding trough. The "Impossible" Healthcare Solution: Go Back to Cash (July 29, 2009) While we as a nation can sleepwalk into Sickcare-induced bankruptcy, private enterprises cannot go quietly off the fiscal cliff without some attempt at self-preservation. Looking at $30,000 a year in healthcare insurance costs for family coverage of every full-time employee--costs that just keeping soaring higher--employers are quite rationally salivating at the prospect of slashing headcount with AI agents, gig workers with zero benefits / health coverage using AI agents, low-cost offshore workers using AI agents, etc. The entire Sickcare system has to be tossed in the dustbin of history so we can start over from scratch. "Reforms" are just cover stories for adding more cash to the federal feeding trough for those managing the "reforms" through the auction of political favors of Congress. Fee for service worked when it was the customer paying and employers paid insurance policies for low-cost hospital care at local community-owned hospitals, but that model was junked as absurdly unprofitable and replaced by Corporate America's federally funded profit-harvester which chews through everything to maximize profits by any means available. Why Healthcare Is in a Death Spiral: Follow the Money (December 1, 2025) It's not that complicated, folks: either replace the current "healthcare" system or bankrupt the nation--and all the employers who don't replace employees with no-healthcare-insurance AI agents. It really boils down to a simple choice: is "healthcare" just another profit-maximizing "opportunity" that's maximized by buying political influence, corrupting "scientific research" and creating cartels so there is no competition left, or should healthcare be about fostering a healthy way of living at the lowest possible expense via common-sense incentives for healthcare institutions, caregivers, employers, patients and our economy and culture to do whatever can be done at low cost to foster health by avoiding preventable / lifestyle illnesses and diseases, starting by recognizing the adverse health consequences of designed-to-be-addictive ultra-processed foods, social media, AI and smartphones? A modest profit and higher compensation to reward improved productivity / results are common-sense incentives. But what we have today is a system that incentivizes maximizing profits by any means available, regardless of consequences. That is not a healthy incentive system, that is pathological psychosis masquerading as a healthy incentive system. If we can no longer tell the difference between the two, we're doomed to reap the consequences. Or shall we be "bullish" on the profitability of Sickcare because the federal feeding trough is unlimited? That seems to be the consensus choice at the moment. That this is delusional is not a problem, because we print our way to prosperity. Uh, yeah, sure. And if that should fail--perish the thought--we can always borrow trillions of quatloos from the Central Bank of Mars. 
The second more-or-less impossible change that would make me bullish is rebalancing the extreme asymmetry of Capital and Labor that favors Capital over Labor. Capital is taxed at low rates, labor is taxed at high rates--and that's just the start of the asymmetries favoring Capital over Labor. AI is shorthand for Capital. So invest capital in AI, get rid of costly (taxpaying) employees, profits soar and the asymmetrical inequalities of wealth and power will skyrocket to new extremes. Never mind robots aren't consumers; because we print our way to prosperity, we'll just print up a couple trillion dollars every few months to fund Universal Basic Income (UBI), so the millions of laid-off workers can stare at screens all day or write bad poetry and still buy, buy, buy to their heart's content, generating Corporate profits that only go up, and a stock market that only goes up. Welcome to FantasyLand! 
I will enthusiastically join the Bulls when we replace a guaranteed-to-bankrupt-us Sickcare system and we rebalance the extreme asymmetries of Capital and Labor. If we have no incentive to do so because markets go up and we print our way to prosperity, then we're inviting a reversal to extremes at the other end of the spectrum, where markets stop going up, Capital changes places with Labor and printing delivers ruin rather than prosperity. My book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free) Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com Subscribe to my Substack for free My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. THE REVOLUTION TRILOGY: Investing In Revolution Ultra-Processed Life The Mythology of Progress Systemic Problems/Solutions Investing In Revolution (2025) Introduction (free) The Mythology of Progress (2024) Introduction (free) Global Crisis, National Renewal (2021) Introduction (free) Money and Work Unchained (2017) Introduction (free) A Radically Beneficial World (2015) Introduction (free) What You Can Do Yourself Ultra-Processed Life (2025) Introduction (free) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century (2022) Introduction (free) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal (2022) Introduction (free) Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy (2014) Intro (free) Novels The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher Intro (free) The Secret Life of an Asian Heroine First chapters (free) Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free Investing In Revolution print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (145 pages, 2025) 
Only now do we see that we've been investing in revolution for decades--not the revolutions we thought we were investing in, revolutions in technology and finance, but in the social revolution made inevitable by the extremes that we've reached in our single-minded pursuit of private gains.
The pendulum that we've pushed to an extreme will swing to the opposite extreme, and the artifices that have propped up a facade a stability for decades will accelerate the disorder rather than reverse it. We now stand at the point of decision, and this book offers a path to a reformation and renewal that serves the shared interests of us all, not just the few. Introduction (free) Ultra-Processed Life print $16, (Kindle $7.95, audiobook, Hardcover $20 (129 pages, 2025) 
Ultra-Processed Life: the substitution of a synthetic, commoditized, very profitable facsimile for what was once authentic.
Ultra-Processed Life is my term for everything that is analogous to ultra-processed snacks: attractively marketed, instantly alluring, easy to consume, addictive by design, tasty in the moment but harmful over time, its origins a black box of unknown processes, the brightly colored product bearing no resemblance to the real-world ingredients, an idealized form of what is inherently imperfect, untethered from the natural world. As with many others, the catalyst for my exploration was a life-threatening medical crisis that did not have a specific cause. This led me to wonder if our entire way of life is like an ultra-processed snack: tasty but not healthy, edible but stripped of the nutrients we need to be healthy, addictive by design. Introduction (free) The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $20, (Kindle $9.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) audiobook, Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) 
What if the policies to accelerate growth are no longer working because our fix for every problem--growth at any cost--is failing? We're told Progress is inevitable as a result of technology, but everyday life is getting harder, not easier--the opposite of Progress, what I call Anti-Progress.
What if the real source of the unraveling is far deeper than economics or politics? What if the problem is what we see as the inevitable destiny of humanity--Progress--is actually a modern mythology, disconnected from the real-world consequences of growth for growth's sake? We indignantly reject that Progress is a mythology, but our need for mythology hasn't gone away because we've mastered technology; we've created a modern mythology of technology that is heedless of its own consequences. To truly progress, we need a new mythology aligned to 21st century realities. Read the Introduction and first chapter for free
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Paging Nostradamus: You Have a Margin Call
March 11, 2026
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Extra-Special Bonus Aphorisms:
"There is no security on this earth; there is only opportunity." (Douglas MacArthur) "We are what we repeatedly do." (Aristotle) "Do the thing and you shall have the power." (Ralph Waldo Emerson) "Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction." (E.F. Schumacher, via Tom R.) "He who will not risk cannot win." (John Paul Jones) "When we drink coffee, ideas march in like the army." (Honore de Balzac) "Progress is not possible without deviation." (Frank Zappa, via Richard Metzger) "Victory favors those who take pains." (amat victoria curam) "The man who has a garden and a library has everything." (Cicero, via Lee Bentley) "A healthy homecooked family meal and a home garden are revolutionary acts." (CHS) "Do you know what amazes me more than anything else? The impotence of force to organize anything." (Napoleon Bonaparte) "The way of the Tao is reversal" Or "Reversal is the movement of Tao." (Lao Tzu) "Chance favours the prepared mind." (Louis Pasteur) "Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." (Winston Churchill) "Where there is ruin, there is hope for treasures." (Rumi) "The realm of gratitude is boundless." (CHS, 11/25/15) "History doesn't have a reverse gear." (CHS, 12/22/15) Smith's Law of Conservation of Risk: Every sustained action has more than one consequence. Some consequences will appear positive for a time before revealing their destructive nature. Some consequences will be intended, some will not. Some will be foreseeable, some will not. Some will be controllable, some will not. Those that are unforeseen and uncontrollable will trigger waves of other unforeseen and uncontrollable consequences. (July 8, 2014)(thanks to Lew G. for retitling the idea.) Smith's Neofeudalism Principle #1: If the citizenry cannot replace a kleptocratic authoritarian government and/or limit the power of the financial Aristocracy at the ballot box, the nation is a democracy in name only. The Smith Corollary to Metcalfe's Law (The Network Effect): the value of the network is created not just by the number of connected devices/users but by the value of the information and knowledge shared by users in sub-networks and in the entire network. (CHS, 4/6/16) My Credo of Liberation: I no longer care if the power centers of our society--the distant, fortified castles of our financial feudal system--are changed by my actions, for I am liberated by the act of resistance. I am no longer complicit in perpetuating fraudulent feudalism and the pathology of concentrated power. I no longer covet signifiers of membership in the Upper Caste that serves the plutocracy. I am liberated from self-destructive consumerist-State financialization and the delusion that debt servitude and obedience to sociopathological Elites serve my self-interests. (Thank you, Klaus-Peter L., for reminding me) "We've become a culture of excuses rather than solutions: solutions always require sustained effort and discipline." (CHS 4/9/16) "Fraud as a way of life caters an extravagant banquet of consequences." (CHS 4/14/16) "Creativity = problem solving = value creation." (CHS 6/4/16) "Truth is powerful because it is the core dynamic of solving problems." (CHS 7/21/17) "We live in a system of human emotions that masquerades as a science (economics)." (CHS 1/1/18) "Always remember, your focus determines your reality." (George Lucas) "Diversity is for poor people. Sameness is for the successful." (GFB) "When power dissipates suddenly, it dissipates completely." (CHS 7/14/19) "Disobedience is the true foundation of liberty. The obedient must be slaves." (Henry David Thoreau) "Markets cannot price in the value of non-monetized natural assets such as diverse ecosystems." (CHS 7/14/19) "Magical thinking isn't optimism, it is folly." CHS 1/3/22) "Tune in (to self-reliance), drop out (of hyper-consumerism and debt-serfdom) and turn on (to relocalizing capital and agency)." (CHS 1/5/22) "The path to everything you desire starts here: like yourself as you are right now." (CHS 11/20/22) "There are only two signals: how many essentials you produce and share and if you're consuming less with better results. Everything else is noise." (CHS 12/17/22) "Liberation is no longer needing any confirmation or feedback from others or the world for one's sense of self. Wealth, fame, recognition, admiration, praise, prestige, approval, sainthood, martyrdom, success: none are needed, none are desired." (CHS 12/26/22) "When fame, wealth, prestige, status and glory are out of reach, you're free to pursue other more valuable things." (CHS 2/6/22) "It is the sacred duty of every activist who seeks to better their community to grow and share as much life-giving food as is humanly possible." (CHS 6/15/23) "Being anonymous, gray and unknown is the ideal state of freedom." (CHS 3/15/24) "We seem to have entered a world of anti-leisure and anti-productivity in which the unpaid shadow work demanded to keep all the complicated digital bits in motion obliterate our leisure and productivity." CHS (5/22/24) "It is axiomatic that failing systems work the best just before they fail catastrophically." Ray W. "Looking younger is mere technique; thinking younger demands creativity." CHS (10/16/24) "Tell me what's taboo and I'll tell you the truths that threaten the status quo." CHS (12/15/24) "This is the core of the Attention Economy: the ultimate addiction is the addiction to ourselves." CHS (1/28/25) "If You Seek the Truth, Look for What's Taboo." CHS (7/18/25) "My definition of self-reliance: the less you need, the easier it is to get what you need." CHS (7/26/25) "Mastery requires reading and doing." CHS (7/28/25) "The replacement of authentic value, quality, agency, choice, trust, legitimacy and experience with self-serving facsimiles is the key dynamic of Ultra-Processed Life, my term for the present-day human condition." CHS (8/12/25) "Ultra-Processed Life replaces an authentic experience with a synthetic, simulated, commoditized, highly profitable version that's superficially attractive but destructive over the long term." CHS (8/12/25) "What we see everywhere is the replacement of authentic things--including democracy--with synthetic facsimiles designed to maintain the illusion of choice and value." CHS (8/12/25) "Sometimes certainty is the enemy we don't even see and uncertainty is our most faithful ally." CHS (9/20/25) "Sanitized, homogenized, synthesized Ultra-Processed Life isn't more fun; it's just more profitable." CHS (4/6/26) "AI is ultra-processed cognition." CHS (4/6/26) |
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