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Central Banks: When We Succeed, We Fail

November 24, 2014


Goosing stocks ever higher will eventually push wealth inequality to the point that it unleashes social instability.

Central banks around the world share a few simple goals:

1. Defeat deflation by sparking inflation--in the cost of goods and services, not wages.

2. Weaken the currency to boost exports and counter beggar thy neighbor devaluations by other exporting nations and trading blocs.

3. Boost the value of stocks to keep pension plans afloat and project a politically powerful message of "growth" and "prosperity."

What no central bank dares say is what happens should they manage to boost inflation, devalue their currency and continue pushing assets higher: when we succeed, we fail.

Consider the consequences of juicing inflation: every click up in inflation further reduces the purchasing power of wages, which do not keep up with inflation in a world of labor surplus.

When central banks succeed in jacking up inflation, they will fail the households and enterprises whose income is stagnating or declining: Were European Central Bank head Mario Draghi honest, here is what he would say:

Devaluing one's currency is another way of pushing down the purchasing power of households' income and savings. Were Bank of Japan head Haruhiko Kuroda honest, here is what he would say:

Goosing stocks ever higher will eventually push wealth inequality to the point that it unleashes social instability. Were Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen honest, here is what she would say:

Should central banks succeed in jacking up inflation, devaluing the purchasing power of fiat currencies and pushing stocks to the moon, they will have failed their citizenry. Should they succeed in reaching their goals, they will trigger catastrophic instability.








Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy (Kindle, $9.95)(print, $17.76)
go to Kindle edition
Are you like me?
Ever since my first summer job decades ago, I've been chasing financial security. Not win-the-lottery, Bill Gates riches (although it would be nice!), but simply a feeling of financial control. I want my financial worries to if not disappear at least be manageable and comprehensible.

And like most of you, the way I've moved toward my goal has always hinged not just on having a job but a career.

You don't have to be a financial blogger to know that "having a job" and "having a career" do not mean the same thing today as they did when I first started swinging a hammer for a paycheck.

Even the basic concept "getting a job" has changed so radically that jobs--getting and keeping them, and the perceived lack of them--is the number one financial topic among friends, family and for that matter, complete strangers.

So I sat down and wrote this book: Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

It details everything I've verified about employment and the economy, and lays out an action plan to get you employed.

I am proud of this book. It is the culmination of both my practical work experiences and my financial analysis, and it is a useful, practical, and clarifying read.

Test-drive the first section and see for yourself.     Kindle, $9.95     print, $17.76

"I want to thank you for creating your book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy. It is rare to find a person with a mind like yours, who can take a holistic systems view of things without being captured by specific perspectives or agendas. Your contribution to humanity is much appreciated."
Laura Y.

Gordon Long and I discuss The New Nature of Work: Jobs, Occupations & Careers (25 minutes, YouTube)


HUGE GIANT BIG FAT DISCLAIMER: Nothing on this site should be construed as investment advice or guidance. It is not intended as investment advice or guidance, nor is it offered as such.... (read more)

WHY EMAIL TO THIS SITE IS READ BUT MAY NOT BE ACKNOWLEDGED: Regrettably, I am so sorely pressed for time and energy that I am unable to respond to the vast majority of emails. Please know I read all emails, but I can only devote a very limited number of hours to this blog and all correspondence....



This Month's entries:

Central Banks: When We Succeed, We Fail
November 24, 2014

The Astonishing Rise of Central Bank Fear
November 22, 2014

Have Central Banks Entered an Undeclared War?
November 21, 2014

The Falcon Can No Longer Hear the Falconer
November 20, 2014

Why Living in a Post-Bubble World Is No Fun
November 19, 2014

One Reason Why Sickcare Is Outrageously Expensive: Needless Scans/Tests
November 18, 2014

The Cruel Injustice of the Fed's Bubbles in Housing
November 17, 2014

The Rubber Band Is Stretched--Will It Break?
November 15, 2014

It's Not Just Japan That's Failed; The "Asian Miracle" Model Has Also Failed
November 14, 2014

Why the Rising U.S. Dollar Could Destabilize the Global Financial System
November 13, 2014

Which Cities/States Will Be the First to Default When the Economy Rolls Over?
November 12, 2014

What Have We Learned From 24 Years of War?
November 11, 2014

Where Will Risk Erupt This Time?
November 10, 2014

One Chart, One Question
November 8, 2014

About That "S&P 500 Will Be 2,150 by Christmas" Call....
November 7, 2014

If You Really Think It Matters Which Party Controls the Senate, Answer These Questions
November 6, 2014

Why Tax Just Soda? Why Not Tax Sugar?
November 5, 2014

Anatomy of a Failing State: Japan's Budgetary Nightmare
November 4, 2014

Japan's Monetary Pearl Harbor
November 3, 2014

Home-Grown Potatoes and Lovage
November 1, 2014


October 2014 entries

September 2014 entries

August 2014 entries

July 2014 entries

June 2014 entries

May 2014 entries

April 2014 entries

March 2014 entries

February 2014 entries

January 2014 entries


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SPECIAL APPEAL TO READERS OF OFTWOMINDS from longtime correspondent Cheryl A.:

I don't recall exactly how I discovered Of Two Minds in late 2005, but it is hard to express how grateful I am that I did. As a result of the insight I have gained from the information Charles has shared over these past 9 years, I have been able to navigate this turbulent period much more successfully than most of my acquaintances. I'm sure that those of you who visit OTM with any regularity have similarly benefitted in numerous ways.

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10/20/14 P.S. Over a year ago, Charles wrote about the coming rise in the dollar, a story that is just now gaining traction in the mainstream media. He was also early to recognize that the price of oil was going to fall. For readers who want foresight into where we are headed, these are further examples of why Charles deserves your support.

Thank you, Cheryl, for this vote of confidence. I can only promise that I will continue to do my best.


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All content, HTML coding, format design, design elements and images copyright © 2014 Charles Hugh Smith, All global rights reserved in all media, unless otherwise credited or noted.

                                                                       

Extra-Special Bonus Aphorisms:


"There is no security on this earth; there is only opportunity."
(Douglas MacArthur)

"We are what we repeatedly do." (Aristotle)

"Do the thing and you shall have the power." (Ralph Waldo Emerson)

"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction." (E.F. Schumacher, via Tom R.)

"He who will not risk cannot win." (John Paul Jones)

"When we drink coffee, ideas march in like the army." (Honore de Balzac)

"Progress is not possible without deviation." (Frank Zappa, via Richard Metzger)

"Victory favors those who take pains." (amat victoria curam)

"The man who has a garden and a library has everything." (Cicero, via Lee Bentley)

"A healthy homecooked family meal and a home garden are revolutionary acts." CHS

"Do you know what amazes me more than anything else? The impotence of force to organize anything." (Napoleon Bonaparte)

"The way of the Tao is reversal" Or "Reversal is the movement of Tao." (Lao Tzu)

"Chance favours the prepared mind." (Louis Pasteur)

"Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." (Winston Churchill)

"Where there is ruin, there is hope for treasures." (Rumi)

"The grand essentials to happiness in this life are something to do, something to love and something to hope for." Joseph Addison (via Susan J.)

"The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." (Marcus Aurelius, Meditations, via Wayne H.)

"Passive absorption of marketing-dominated media is the primary activity on the plantation of the mind, and that of course is the goal of the colonial overlords: distraction, passivity, confusion, divide and conquer, and the old stand-by, financial desperation." (CHS)

"While we can always buy back into a trending market, we cannot go back in time and recover a profit lost to greed or complacency." (CHS)

"Whatever remains unconscious emerges later as fate." (Carl Jung)

"Any sufficiently advanced cartel's actions are indistinguishable from magic." (CHS)

"We have no leadership, just cronies and puppets." (CHS)

"The secret sauce in an investment isn't the upside, it's the viability between people who choose to share your dream in business or in life." (Eric P.)

"The ultimate goals of making money are balance and independence from money." (An Chu)

"Central planning perfects the power of threats to bypass the system's defenses." (CHS)

"Independence requires independence of thought, habit and action." (CHS)

"Certainty has another advantage: it's more persuasive than hedged hesitancy." (CHS)

"That which is cheap and abundant will be squandered until it is no longer cheap or abundant." (CHS) (3/5/2014)

"The prime directive of any bureaucracy is to eliminate all accountability." (CHS)

"In a world besotted with the artifice of consumerism, what matters is not what can be commodified and bought but what can't be commodified and bought." (CHS)

"The Mobile Creative credo: trust the network, not the corporation or the state." (CHS)

The Smith Market Uncertainty Principle: The more precisely we can determine the likelihood of a trend change, the less precisely we can determine the timing of the trend change--and vice versa. (June 20, 2014)

The Smith Uncertainty Principle: Every sustained action has more than one consequence. Some consequences will appear positive for a time before revealing their destructive nature. Some consequences will be intended, some will not. Some will be foreseeable, some will not. Some will be controllable, some will not. Those that are unforeseen and uncontrollable will trigger waves of other unforeseen and uncontrollable consequences. (July 8, 2014)

"The truth at any cost lowers all other costs." (Robert David Steele)

click here for more Extra-Special Bonus Aphorisms.


                                                                       




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    My "definition" of success:

    1. Did I make myself useful today?
    2. Did I take care of myself today and avoid burdening anyone with my cares and troubles?
    3. Were I to meet the living Jesus or Buddha at day's end, would I feel ashamed of my conduct during the day, or could I meet his gaze with the inner knowledge that I emulated his teachings to the very best of my ability?


    live free
    live well
    live with integrity
    live with kindness
    be average but with self-discipline


    7 things to aspire to:

    austerity
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    patience
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