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The Crises Yet to Come February 6, 2025
"Controlling the narrative" to justify destabilizing asymmetries won't change the consequences.
That the Trump Reformation / Counter-Reformation is disrupting various nodes of the status quo is viewed as an existential crisis by many. The choice between Reformation / Counter-Reformation seems to cleave on this basic perception: the status quo in its 2024 configuration was ably serving the common good, or the the status quo in its 2024 configuration had veered from the basics of accountability, efficiency and transparency into self-serving self-righteousness, defending its sclerosis and inefficiency via political correctness and narrative control. The Trump Reformation / Counter-Reformation isn't the crisis, it's the symptom of a status quo approaching crisis. The real crises are still ahead, and while the nature of the polycrisis gathering force over the horizon is open to debate, its basic dynamics are already visible. Longtime readers know I have discussed cycles and historical waves over the past 20 years. We can dismiss the timing pf previous crises as coincidence, but it would be unwise to dismiss the dynamics that generate cycles and waves of crisis and collapse. Correspondent Bruce H. recently posted this summary of a core dynamic in long-wave cyclical crises: "We are in the midst of a wider historical pattern, I think. During the expansive, formative stage of an empire, there is a dynamic approach to each new problem, finding solutions, overcoming obstacles, and building on success. Genius comes from every level of society and frequently climbs from the lowest group to the top. Society is in flux, with people moving up and down the social strata. The poorest experience increased wealth, but there is not too much disparity between them and the very top. At a certain point, the elites begin solidify into a relatively fixed group, the flux of people between strata begins to slow. The dynamic creative approaches to new problems begins to wane. Those at the top in the final stages of any empire, which scholars have noted tend to have a median life of 250 years, the elites develop a mental sclerosis wherein they cannot conceive of any new ways of doing anything. They only collectively remember what brought them to the top, and, instead of finding novel solutions to new issues and problems, prefer to redefine the problems in such a way that the old solutions become the way to address them. Of course this does not actually solve the underlying real issues, which then metastasize into intractable crises. The proletariat loses faith in the system and begins to abandon it. Usually, a charismatic figure arises, promising to reform the system and returning to a glorious past time, but who suffers a crisis which finally splinters the whole polity. Does this pattern sound at all familiar?" I would add this: the system first abandons the working class, who then abandon the system. I call this abandonment opting out, and it has a great many variations. The status quo's core hierarchy isn't political, as most imagine: it's the economy rules all, and finance and technology rule the economy. The economy gathers up the resources, capital and labor, and distributes them according to the incentives embedded in finance and economic structures. Society picks up whatever crumbs fall off the economic wagon, a nameless, ignored beggar. While finance and technology attract the best and brightest and savor the glory of endless euphoric worship, the forgotten fabric of the status quo--the social order--is unraveling. In broad brush, society and the economy interact in two ways: the Pareto Distribution (the 80-20 rule) and the relative ease / porousness of social mobility. Pareto found that over time 80% of the wealth ends up in the hands of the top 20%. This same distribution is found in the top 20%: 20% of 20% is 4%, 80% of 80% is 64%, so the top 4% hold roughly 64% of the wealth. Income is also concentrated in the top 20%, but to a lesser degree than capital / wealth. The question of economic abandonment (and thus of social stability) boils down to: how is the wealth / income distributed within these broad parameters? In the U.S., over 90% of all financial wealth--stocks, etc.-- is held by the top 10%. As expected in the 4/64 distribution, the top 5% own the lion's share of this wealth. This exceeds the expected 20/80 distribution, meaning the bottom 80% aren't even holding 20% of the income-producing wealth. Their "wealth" is in assets that cost money rather than generate income: vehicles, the family home, student loans, etc. This extreme asymmetry undermines the social order, and as Bruce outlined, it ossifies social mobility, the flow of individuals and households sliding from the top 20% into the bottom 80% and ascending from the bottom 80% into the top 20%. Again in broad brush, if the top 4% have moated their position at the top and the bottom 64% have little opportunity to rise into the top 20%, the social order will fray and unravel even as "the economy" generates vast profits for the few. In other words, the economy can appear robust while beneath the surface the asymmetries built into the economy are dismantling society. The majority of commentators are looking at financial, political, geopolitical or environmental sources for a global crisis. Few seem to notice that the economy has effectively abandoned the bottom 64% of the citizenry, who no longer have the means to buy a "middle class" life of homeownership, a family with resources to invest in children, and some modicum of financial security. While the media glorifies finance and tech, our social order in unraveling. I have family and friends who were police officers, so I have some familiarity with the rigors and pressures of what is often an impossible job. That the police are now the frontline of America's mental healthcare system--if it even deserves to be called a system--is proof-positive that our social order is well on the way to a collapse few reckon possible, much less inevitable. The Invisible Man: We see right through the unshowered soul living in a car by the beach, or by the Walmart, or by the side of the road. But he's there, and he used to be somebody. He still is. A firsthand account of homelessness in America. It isn't just the bottom 4% who have been abandoned--the bottom 64% have been abandoned, too, and the Reformation / Counter-Reformation isn't going to change that enough to matter. As long as the economy is our real-world religion stewarded by the priesthoods of finance and tech, the abandonment will continue to the point of social dissolution. This snapshot of the bottom 50% reflects the abandonment of the bottom 64%. Yes, mainstream economists slave away to find arcane ways to mask this reality and glorify their masters' dominance, but this is the reality the top 20% is desperate to ignore, explain away or obfuscate. 
When the concentrations of wealth and income in the top few exceed the Pareto distribution, and those at the top have dug a wide, deep moat around their position at the top, the center of the social order cannot hold. 
Yes, we all worked hard over the past 50 years. My Social Security work record is 54 years and counting. But "working hard" is no longer enough to open the doors of social mobility, and our denial of present-day realities only accelerates the unraveling. 
Political reforms don't change anything if the economic-financial asymmetries remain firmly in place or become even more asymmetric. Humans excel at self-justification, explaining away uncomfortable truths and weaving all the threads of narrative control. 
Controlling the narrative to justify destabilizing asymmetries won't change the consequences. The crises generated by these immense asymmetries are rumbling over the horizon. Few see the storm front because it threatens the security of their worldview. But turning a blind eye to wholesale abandonment that favors the few at the expense of the many isn't going to make the storm go away, or change the seating at the banquet of consequences. My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) 
What if growth--and policies to accelerate growth--are no longer working because our fix for every problem--growth for growth's sake--is failing? We're told Progress is inevitable as a result of technology, but everyday life is getting harder, not easier--the opposite of Progress, what I call Anti-Progress.
What if the real source of the unraveling is far deeper than economics or politics? What if the problem is what we see as the inevitable destiny of humanity--Progress--is actually a modern mythology, disconnected from the real-world consequences of growth for growth's sake? We indignantly reject that Progress is a mythology, but our need for mythology hasn't gone away because we've mastered technology; we've created a modern mythology of technology that is heedless of its own consequences. To truly progress, we need a new mythology aligned to 21st century realities. That's the goal of this book. Read the Introduction and first chapter for free Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) 
Just as no one was left unaffected by the rise of globalization, no one will be unaffected by its demise.
The only response that reduces our vulnerability is self-reliance: de-risk your life by carving a path that works for you.
When Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote his famous essay Self-Reliance in 1841, the economy was localized and households supplied many of their own essentials. Now we're dependent on distant sources for our essentials. For Emerson, self-reliance is thinking for ourselves rather than taking the conventional path. Self-reliance today means reordering our priorities and values. Self-reliance is often confused with self-sufficiency--the equivalent of Thoreau's cabin. But self-reliance isn't about piling up money or an isolated cabin; it's about cooperating with trustworthy others in productive networks. The book details the essential mindset of self-reliance and 18 nuts and bolts principles of self-reliance in the 21st century. Podcast with Richard Bonugli: Self Reliance in the 21st Century (43 min)
Recent entries: The Crises Yet to Come February 6, 2025 Lots of Solutions, But for Which Problems? February 3, 2025 Begging Bowl '25: I'm Looking for Two Readers Willing to Help Me Buy a New Thrift-Store Shirt February 2, 2025 AI Is a Digital Parrot: Word-Traps, False Logic and the Illusion of Intelligence January 31, 2025 The AI Fad Just Burned to the Waterline January 29, 2025 Welcome to the DeepSeek Disruption (DSD) January 28, 2025 Is DeepSeek a Sputnik Moment? January 26, 2025 The Power of Our Behavior January 23, 2025 The Do-It-Yourself Decade January 22, 2025 Extremes Become More Extreme, Then Revert to the Mean January 20, 2025 Is Placing a Wager in a Casino an "Investment"? January 16, 2025 Catch-20: The 20 Dynamics That Will Shape the Next Decade January 15, 2025 What If Tech, the Market and the State Are No Longer Solutions? January 13, 2025 The Easy Credit, High Interest Rate Swindle January 9, 2025
I Quit! The Tsunami of Burnout Few See
January 7, 2025
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"There is no security on this earth; there is only opportunity." (Douglas MacArthur) "We are what we repeatedly do." (Aristotle) "Do the thing and you shall have the power." (Ralph Waldo Emerson) "Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction." (E.F. Schumacher, via Tom R.) "He who will not risk cannot win." (John Paul Jones) "When we drink coffee, ideas march in like the army." (Honore de Balzac) "Progress is not possible without deviation." (Frank Zappa, via Richard Metzger) "Victory favors those who take pains." (amat victoria curam) "The man who has a garden and a library has everything." (Cicero, via Lee Bentley) "A healthy homecooked family meal and a home garden are revolutionary acts." (CHS) "Do you know what amazes me more than anything else? The impotence of force to organize anything." 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Smith's Neofeudalism Principle #1: If the citizenry cannot replace a kleptocratic authoritarian government and/or limit the power of the financial Aristocracy at the ballot box, the nation is a democracy in name only. The Smith Corollary to Metcalfe's Law (The Network Effect): the value of the network is created not just by the number of connected devices/users but by the value of the information and knowledge shared by users in sub-networks and in the entire network. (CHS, 4/6/16) My Credo of Liberation: I no longer care if the power centers of our society--the distant, fortified castles of our financial feudal system--are changed by my actions, for I am liberated by the act of resistance. I am no longer complicit in perpetuating fraudulent feudalism and the pathology of concentrated power. I no longer covet signifiers of membership in the Upper Caste that serves the plutocracy. I am liberated from self-destructive consumerist-State financialization and the delusion that debt servitude and obedience to sociopathological Elites serve my self-interests. (Thank you, Klaus-Peter L., for reminding me) "We've become a culture of excuses rather than solutions: solutions always require sustained effort and discipline." (CHS 4/9/16) "Fraud as a way of life caters an extravagant banquet of consequences." (CHS 4/14/16) "Creativity = problem solving = value creation." (CHS 6/4/16) "Truth is powerful because it is the core dynamic of solving problems." (CHS 7/21/17) "We live in a system of human emotions that masquerades as a science (economics)." (CHS 1/1/18) "Always remember, your focus determines your reality." (George Lucas) "Diversity is for poor people. Sameness is for the successful." (GFB) "When power dissipates suddenly, it dissipates completely." (CHS 7/14/19) "Disobedience is the true foundation of liberty. The obedient must be slaves." (Henry David Thoreau) "Markets cannot price in the value of non-monetized natural assets such as diverse ecosystems." (CHS 7/14/19) "Magical thinking isn't optimism, it is folly." CHS 1/3/22) "Tune in (to self-reliance), drop out (of hyper-consumerism and debt-serfdom) and turn on (to relocalizing capital and agency)." (CHS 1/5/22) "The path to everything you desire starts here: like yourself as you are right now." (CHS 11/20/22) "There are only two signals: how many essentials you produce and share and if you're consuming less with better results. Everything else is noise." (CHS 12/17/22) "Liberation is no longer needing any confirmation or feedback from others or the world for one's sense of self. Wealth, fame, recognition, admiration, praise, prestige, approval, sainthood, martyrdom, success: none are needed, none are desired." (CHS 12/26/22) "When fame, wealth, prestige, status and glory are out of reach, you're free to pursue other more valuable things." (CHS 2/6/22) "It is the sacred duty of every activist who seeks to better their community to grow and share as much life-giving food as is humanly possible." (CHS 6/15/23) "Being anonymous, gray and unknown is the ideal state of freedom." (CHS 3/15/24) "We seem to have entered a world of anti-leisure and anti-productivity in which the unpaid shadow work demanded to keep all the complicated digital bits in motion obliterate our leisure and productivity." CHS (5/22/24) "It is axiomatic that failing systems work the best just before they fail catastrophically." Ray W. "Looking younger is mere technique; thinking younger demands creativity." CHS (10/16/24) "Tell me what's taboo and I'll tell you the truths that threaten the status quo." CHS (12/15/24) "This is the core of the Attention Economy: the ultimate addiction is the addiction to ourselves." CHS (1/28/25) |
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