We Don't Have One Problem--We Have Three Interlocking Sets of Problems
(October 27, 2014)
The additional sets of problems added as "solutions" only guarantee that the third and final crash of asset bubbles just ahead will be far more devastating than the crashes of 2000 and 2009. The conventional view tacitly assumes the global economy is dealing with one problem: recovering from the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-09. Stimulating a "recovery" has been the focus of central banks and states everywhere. Short-sighted political expediency is a hallmark of the modern state's reaction to crisis, but political expediency isn't the only flaw in the central banks/states' obsessive focus on "recovery;" it's not even the primary flaw.
The real flaw is the central banks/states don't even recognize that we face three interlocking sets of problems, not one. Each set of problems is layered on top of the previous layer, and each sets reinforces the other two. In other words, the entire problem set is more than just the sum of the three problem sets. 1. Financialization of the economy. As the post-industrial funk of the 1970s dragged on, the neoliberal ideology of liberalizing credit markets and eliminating the regulatory wall between investment banking and commercial/mortgage banking was presented as the fundamental fix to post-industrial stagnation: free up credit, leverage and speculation, and the results would be an expansion of asset prices and growth. The first wave of financialization in the 1980s did indeed boost asset valuations and growth, but it did so by eroding the productive economy and the middle class that arose from gains in productivity. Financialization substitutes finance for productive investments, such that financial games such as originating subprime home mortgages become far more profitable than non-financial capital investments. I've covered the immense structural damage wrought by financialization for years. Here is a small sample of essays from the 10+ pages of links available in the archives: What's the Primary Cause of Wealth Inequality? Financialization (March 24, 2014) Financialization and Crony Capitalism Have Gutted the Middle Class (July 13, 2012) Our "Let's Pretend" Economy: Let's Pretend Financialization Hasn't Killed the Economy (March 8, 2012) The E.U., Neofeudalism and the Neocolonial-Financialization Model (May 24, 2012) Productive Vs. Unproductive: Manufacturing Vs. Financialization (June 6, 2011) The Heart of Financialization: Counterfeiting Risk-Free Assets (December 7, 2012) Why have the central banks and central states allowed financialization to hollow out the real economy? Because they have no choice. As I explained in Why the State Has Failed to Reform Our Broken Financial System (October 16, 2014), extreme financialization is the last source of the monumental profits the state needs to fund itself, and the last source of economic "growth" in an economy gutted by previous rounds of financialization. 2. Extremes of credit, leverage, risk and speculation. As conventional financialization failed to reflate the asset bubbles of the late 1990s that crashed in 2000, central banks and states opened the doors to extremes of credit expansion, leverage and risk. Financial fraud and embezzlement became the models of choice as lenders and borrowers alike engaged in a monstrously profitable churning of securitized mortgages, liar loans, initial public offerings of companies with no hope of generating profits, and all the other tricks of the finance trade. The inevitable result of these extremes of supposedly low-risk leverage and sleight of hand was the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-09, when bubbles in credit, risk, stocks and real estate popped.
The analogy I have used is monetary heroin: the first hits of quantitative easing had an immediate effect on moribund assets. But each successive wave of monetary heroin has had diminishing effects as the addict became habituated to the endless stimulus. The central bank solution to this habituation is to increase each new dose of stimulus. Unfortunately, at some point the dose becomes large enough to kill the addict: The Fed's Failure Complicates Its Endgame (July 30, 2014) Each monetary/fiscal "fix" inflated a bubble that crashed. Rather than face the harsh consequences of financialization and successive waves of monetary extremes, central banks and states have elected to reflate the bubbles as the politically expedient solution that leaves the crony-cartel-state status quo intact. But the additional sets of problems added as "solutions" only guarantee that the third and final crash of asset bubbles just ahead will be far more devastating than the crashes of 2000 and 2009.
The Coming Crash Is Simply the Normalization of a Mispriced Market (July 18, 2014)
Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy (Kindle, $9.95)(print, $20) Are you like me? Ever since my first summer job decades ago, I've been chasing financial security. Not win-the-lottery, Bill Gates riches (although it would be nice!), but simply a feeling of financial control. I want my financial worries to if not disappear at least be manageable and comprehensible. And like most of you, the way I've moved toward my goal has always hinged not just on having a job but a career. You don't have to be a financial blogger to know that "having a job" and "having a career" do not mean the same thing today as they did when I first started swinging a hammer for a paycheck. Even the basic concept "getting a job" has changed so radically that jobs--getting and keeping them, and the perceived lack of them--is the number one financial topic among friends, family and for that matter, complete strangers. So I sat down and wrote this book: Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy. It details everything I've verified about employment and the economy, and lays out an action plan to get you employed. I am proud of this book. It is the culmination of both my practical work experiences and my financial analysis, and it is a useful, practical, and clarifying read. Test drive the first section and see for yourself. Kindle, $9.95 print, $20
"I want to thank you for creating your book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a
Bewildering Economy. It is rare to find a person with a mind like yours, who can take
a holistic systems view of things without being captured by specific perspectives or
agendas. Your contribution to humanity is much appreciated."
Gordon Long and I discuss The
New Nature of Work: Jobs, Occupations & Careers (25 minutes, YouTube)
NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.
"This guy is THE leading visionary on reality.
He routinely discusses things which no one else has talked about, yet,
turn out to be quite relevant months later."
"You shine a bright and piercing light out into an ever-darkening world."
Or send coins, stamps or quatloos via mail--please request P.O. Box address. Subscribers ($5/mo) and those who have contributed $50 or more annually (or made multiple contributions totalling $50 or more) receive weekly exclusive Musings Reports via email ($50/year is about 96 cents a week).
Each weekly Musings Report offers six features:
At readers' request, there is also a $10/month option. What subscribers are saying about the Musings (Musings samples here): The "unsubscribe" link is for when you find the usual drivel here insufferable.
Dwolla members can subscribe to the Musings Reports with a one-time
$50 payment; please email me if you use
Dwolla, as Dwolla does not provide me with your email.
The Heroes & Heroines of New Media: oftwominds.com contributors and subscribers All content, HTML coding, format design, design elements and images copyright © 2014 Charles Hugh Smith, All global rights reserved in all media, unless otherwise credited or noted. I am honored if you link to this essay, or print a copy for your own use.
Terms of Service:
|
Add oftwominds.com |