Musings #8 (2/26/11)) from oftwominds.com
 
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The big story of the week/month/year:
 
As I discussed in Thursday's entry, the loss of legitimacy of governments in North Africa and the Mideast is a one-way street: the genie cannot be put back in the bottle.
 
Correspondent Bram S. sent in this computer-metaphor for the process:
 
 
The loss of legitimacy is a  complex process which defies encapsulation.  The key element now playing out in Arab nations is "the consent of the governed" is being withdrawn.
 
Once a people remove their consent, even the most repressive, dictatorial regimes quickly fall: consider East Germany, the acme of a totalitarian Police State built on distrust and betrayal. The film The Lives of Others  offers a poignant exploration of these themes. Note that the 1989 unraveling of Eastern Europe's "consent of the governed" occurred quickly and without the Internet as an enabling technology. From this we can infer that the Web is not an essential element, it is either a catalyst or an enabling extension of much deeper forces.
 
I am now seeing this process of "delegitimization" in a number of settings, both in the recent past and the present, in both
developed and developing nations.
 
One characteristic which has defined the 20th century is the dominance of the nation-state as a model of governance.  Allegiance and loyalty to the Central State enabled governments to conscript millions of citizens to fight and die for the nation-state.
 
I now see the end of Selective Service (the draft) in 1973 as the end result of the loss of legitimacy of conscription in the U.S. as a policy which had the consent of the governed.  Conscription had been the bedrock policy that enabled the U.S. to persevere and accept casualties in the hundreds of thousands during World War II.  But the Vietnam Conflict eroded the citizens' belief in the benefits of the policy, as young men were shipped to a distant, unwinnable war to lose their lives in vain, for "causes" unconnected to the survival of the nation-state.
 
As a result of this delegitimization of conscription, I.e. the loss of consent of the governed for this policy, then U.S. wars are now much more technology-dependent. The Armed Forces are now professional, with high pay and benefits and intensive training. When the Armed Forces aren't large enough, as in Iraq, then professional mercenaries are hired--quite often ex-military civilians.
 
The governing class in the U.S. is slowly but surely losing the consent of the governed.  The TARP bailout of "too big to fail" banks, for example, was widely hated, yet the Ruling Elites pushed it through all too easily. This "victory" of the Ruling Elites deeply eroded faith in the governing Elites and indeed the system itself.
 
On a very large scale and on a long timeline, we may be witnessing the slow delegitimization of the entire nation-state model.  Correspondent Bram S. submitted this link with a powerful comment: "Governments will look different in 20 years because of the internet. People don't need someone to say what they need to do because of all the information is now available to everyone." (The site is written by a Swedish author/professor). 
http://nextopia.info/
 
We are seeing examples of this process elsewhere in the world. India, as we all know, is deeply corrupt, and the bribes and "fees" levied by the Elites and fiefdoms act as a huge tax on the poor.  Bypassing the bribe-demanding bureaucrats entirely eliminates corruption as an unproductive and selective tax.  Technology and the Web offers some opportunities to do so. If permits can be obtained online, then the local bureaucrat who once collected a bribe to issue the permit has been cut out of the loop. The citizen has more disposable income as a result.
 
In the U.S., we see this process in the growth of peer-to-peer lending, which bypasses the entire parasitic financial Elites cartel /banking sector.
 
In an unpredictable way, what was legitimate and consented to can suddenly be recognized as repressive and needless. In North Africa and the Mideast, this is the Status Quo and Ruling Elites. In the U.S., Europe and Japan, it may be the banking sector which is slowly being delegitimized by over-reach and the extreme concentration of political and financial power. (That is of course one major tenet of the Survival+ critique.)
I will be exploring these slow and uncertain processes in future blog entries.
 
Item #1: Creepy advert campaign: pressing the flesh, literally
(thank you, Michael Goodfellow)
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2011/02/cre e-1.html
Sit down on a bench in shorts, and when you stand up, voila, you're a walking advert.
 
Item #2: Tipping Points 2011 (via U. Doran)
http://news.gol dseek.com/GoldSeek/1298667000.php
Interesting vector analogy--down we go toward chaos etc.
 
Item #3: Will MySpace condos help save your Internet? (thank you, David Harrison)
http://myspacecondos.com/
Interesting concept: if a large group of users purchased MySpace as "condo owners," then this would "save" or conserve certain aspects of the web from corporate control.
 
Item #4: Comic Steve Bridges does G.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Pres. Obama
ht tp://www.stevebridges.com/obamavideos-promo-jan2010-lg.html 
I didn't watch all the clips, but it's pretty amazing that one comic can spoof three very different presidents.
 
Item #5: Rare Earth Trading and extreme risk
"I Was a Rare Earths Day Trader -How a naval confrontation in the South China Sea created a global investment bubble -- and cost me half my life savings." (Thank you, G.F.B.)
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/21/i_was_a_ rare_earths_day_trader
 
Item #6: The power of parenting
Correspondent Kent K. submitted a fascinating and profound observation which I think ties directly into the process of deligitmization/removal of consent: "I worked for many years in the human services field. I have worked previously in a women's shelter (in my early 20's) and was surprised at the number of times an abused woman would return to the abusive relationship. Seven times is the average, though there was cohort that left sooner: women who had children who were also being abused. They left after one or two instances."
 
This suggests that parents may change what they consider legitimate and acceptable once they perceive their children are being sacrificed for the benefit of some ruling Elite.
 
Item #7: undervalued small oil stocks (investing idea)
The rise in oil may have just begun.  If a major exporter (note the difference between an oil exporter and producer--the U.S. produces 9 million barrels a day of oil but exports essentially none) is disrupted to the point that exports are dramatically cut, then oil could rather easily rise by 50% to $150/barrel or even by 100% to $200/barrel.  Are there tiny little oil companies out there with oil leases that are unrecognized by the market? I suspect there are. Yes, the trick is finding them and being able to assess the value of their leases.
 
Thanks for reading--
charles hugh smith
 
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