Musings Report #32 8-5-12 A Most Boring Election
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A Most Boring Election
Having spent the last week in and around Glacier National Park in Montana, I have been far from the election and news cycle. But that didn't mean I was entirely removed from the national zeitgeist. National parks are good places to see vehicles from all over the country, and what struck me was the absolute paucity of election bumper stickers. Of all the hundreds of vehicles we've seen in parking lots and on the roads, I've seen one Obama bumper sticker and none for Romney.
This observation could have many causes. Maybe bumper stickers have lost their appeal; maybe campaigns no longer pass them out. But even if we stipulate bumper stickers are no longer a rough measure of voter enthusiasm, the absence of political indicators on vehicles is if nothing else a metaphor for the lack of voter enthusiasm that is painfully evident in this presidential election.
If this isn't the most boring election in 50 years, it is certainly in the running. Support for the sitting president is tepid at best; Obama's liberal constituency is basically holding its nose and voting for him as the "only alternative" to the Devil, i.e. the Republican candidate.
Romney's support is equally lukewarm, as his constituency is also voting for him not out of a belief that he has what it takes to pull the nation out of its ethical, financial and economic whirlpool, but because he is the "only alternative" to the Devil, i.e. President Obama.
The "argument Industry" pundits are flailing around like beached fish, trying to stimulate some controversy or emotion, but by and large they are failing; the controversies are all tempests in teapots, all sound and fury signifying nothing. I suspect relatively few Americans truly think either candidate has either a "grand plan" to fix what's broken or the personal courage to confront the entrenched interests that rule the political/financial roost.
Perhaps voters now sense the relative powerlessness of the President--any President--to change the Status Quo or control trends.
As far as I can see, there is nothing in either candidate's behavior that suggests he recognises that the vested interests to whom he is beholden are in fact the impediment to fixing what's broken. There is also nothing in the candidate's behavior or history to suggest that either has the courage to rebel against the Empire from which he arose.
Contrast this going-through-the-motions "default support" with the sincere enthusiasm generated by Obama's 2008 campaign. Most voters are only partisan in a default-setting fashion, while an increasing number are adamantly non-partisan. For these voters, going to the polls in November is akin to a teeth-cleaning appointment: you know you should, but you're looking for an excuse to skip the obligation.
Thus it is unsurprising that the candidates, their respective handlers, the Argument Industry and the voters are all going through the motions--a form of resignation and denial I have written about before. When people are just going through the motions of transformation, it's essentially a self-serving sham, as if to say, see, we're doing everything we're supposed to, but it's all for show.
Beneath this surface act, they are either playing for time to return to the "good old days" or they are tacitly conceding they have lost control; they have given up and are attempting to mask that surrender with a face-saving show of effort that they already know is inauthentic and thus doomed to fail.
People routinely claim that voting for 3rd party candiates is "wasting your vote." I propose that voting for one of two versions of failure is wasting your vote.
From Left Field is on hiatus this week, as I haven't spent much time online this week except the few minutes needed to post pre-written blog entries and read headlines. These few online sessions were courtesy of a tethered iPhone that connected to the Web via a 3G connection. Pretty neat technology, as it allowed us to connect to the Web in places that had no wifi.
Market Musings
I've been toying with adding a regular market-related commentary to the Musings Reports. I know many of you appreciate market commentary, while others have little interest in personal-finance/market comments. By breaking such commentary out as a weekly feature, it will be easier for you to read or skip over as per your interests.
Other observers have noted the bipolar nature of the stock market recently--wild mood swings of fear and euphoria that have little connection to the realities of the real economy. Within the past month, there have been four sharp peaks and valleys, basically one a week.
This is not evidence of a healthy market. Indeed, low-volume euphoric rallies and steep declines are characteristic of markets on the verge of major transitions. The stock market gyrated wildly just before the October 1929 stock market crash, for example. Last year, the market swung up and down through most of August and September before central bank "saves" sparked a multi-month rally that started in early October.
Is the bipolar market poised for an epic collapse or another multi-month rally? We cannot know, but history suggests that wild mood swings won't last much beyond two months. We might get another month of impossible-to-trade mood swings and some resolution after the November election, or the market may tip into a new trend as early as next week.
Many financial mavens expected the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) to launch more bond-buying quantitative easing, and their refusal to launch new QE has left the market vulnerable to inputs from the real economy. Friday's job report sparked a huge rally, but the better data (bogus as it may be) also allows the Fed to forego any politically risky QE. That leaves the market without the backstop of the Fed, and thus it is at the mercy of the real economy.
This strikes me as the worst of all possible worlds for the stock market, as the economy (despite the purported increases in positive data) is not growing robustly enough to generate more profits and so the market is ultimately dependent on the Fed's QE "juice" for higher prices.
Meanwhile, the global economy is rolling over into recession, and Europe's debt crisis is beyond the "fixing" offered by the ECB buying bonds of failed states. Recent rallies have run on extremely low volumes, which suggests a market dominated not by buying but by players who are holding (not selling) in hopes of further gains. That's a vulnerable market, regardless of the rally euphoria.
I adore simple pleasures. They are the last refuge of the complex. Oscar Wilde
Thanks for reading--
charles
