Musings Report #44 10-27-12 The Nearly-Free University
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The Nearly-Free University
As part of my book-in progress, Why Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It, I have been pursuing the basic notion that complex systems with diminishing returns will revert to simpler, lower costs systems either via collapse of the Status Quo or by replacement systems that destroy the sclerotic Status Quo because they are faster, better, cheaper and actually affordable, unlike the Status Quo.
Consider The Nearly-Free University, a development I anticipate will take shape within the next five years somewhere. Once the model has been proven, it will rapidly spread.
Credentials such as college degrees have reached the top of the S-Curve and are slipping into diminishing-return decline. I believe that what you can do in the real world will rapidly become more valuable than a credential such as a conventional college degree.
The entire education edifice on the U.S. is based on an inflexible, marginal-return "factory model," something I have written about since 2005.
We are "training" millions of people based on the assumption that academia is a limitless growth industry, when in fact it has reached the zenith of marginal-return complexity and cost.
The Nearly-Free University may or may not have a physical plant. If it does, it will be a cheap re-use facility such as an abandoned office park or factory. It may not have a physical headquarters at all; "classes" may meet at cafes when the need arises. It may be distributed like many global enterprises, a "virtual" university with groups, projects, tutoring, lectures and coursework all available and managed online.
The coursework will largely consist of free lectures and tutorials from non-profits like the Kahn Institute or classes already distributed for free online by Stanford, M.I.T., et al.
Part-time mentors from the real world would act as guides, occasionally lecturing but more often encouraging peer-to-peer tutoring and collaborative projects that are not "study groups" but actual work projects that produce something of value in the real world.
The mentor is a working professional who "works" at the Nearly-Free University on a flex-time basis. Their "job" is to suggest a practical foundation of basic courses in the student's chosen field, but these courses are taken while the student is engaged in real work projects.
These mentors will do the work because they enjoy it; their fee will be modest. Most will work part-time while they pursue their own career.
Students will move seamlessly from online coursework to projects undertaken in real-world enterprises and communities, learning by doing and from collaboration with others in self-organizing groups.
Mentors would have access (as in the Kahn Institute's classroom iterations) to a visual display of the student's coursework, progress and projects.
Student would be encouraged to earn money via the work projects undertaken. Instead of owing $120,000 after four years of passive study, students might complete their University experience with earnings in the bank.
Very few people continue on to research in academia. A few dozen large research universities would be enough to train those who wanted PhDs in academia or high-level research. The Nearly Free University model would educate the 90% who do not need PhDs as they not pursuing careers in academia or research.
Instead of an essentially opaque diploma--what exactly does it communicate about the student's mastery, interests, coursework or accomplishments?--students will be issued a C.V./resume listing all their completed courses and their work projects.
Prospective employers would be able to scan this C.V. and get a real sense of the person's coursework, mastery and work results in the real world.
The total cost of the Nearly-Free University might be $2,000-$3,000 tuition and fees for 3-4 years compared to $60,000 today (not counting room and board, of course). The credential would be secondary to what the student has learned to create, accomplish, fix and innovate in the real world.
Like many of the things I routinely discuss, this model is widely considered "impossible" even though it is the only truly sustainable model of universal education available.
Two Views of Greece
Here are two quite different in-depth articles on Greece. the first is among the best I've seen on the zeitgeist of financial stagnation's social and political costs. Love or nothing: The real Greek parallel with Weimar :
"These were the men who tried and failed to use a mixture of austerity, tough policing and what we might now call "technocratic" rule to save German democracy. They failed."
"Horrified inertia is now seeping from the world of the semi-outlawed young activists into the lives of ordinary people."
"On the streets of Athens there is already the answer. You can feel what it is like when the political system - and even the rule of law - becomes paralysed and atrophies.The "hopeless inertia" begins to grip even the middle classes, as the evidence of organised racist violence encroaches into their lives."
"She found that her subjects consumed about six times as many beans a day as Americans, ate fish twice a week and meat five times a month, drank on average two to three cups of coffee a day and took in about a quarter as much refined sugar — the elderly did not like soda. She also discovered they were consuming high levels of olive oil along with two to four glasses of wine a day."
"Social structure might turn out to be more important. In Sardinia, a cultural attitude that celebrated the elderly kept them engaged in the community and in extended-family homes until they were in their 100s. Studies have linked early retirement among some workers in industrialized economies to reduced life expectancy. In Okinawa, there’s none of this artificial punctuation of life. Instead, the notion of ikigai — “the reason for which you wake up in the morning” — suffuses people’s entire adult lives. It gets centenarians out of bed and out of the easy chair to teach karate, or to guide the village spiritually, or to pass down traditions to children. The Nicoyans in Costa Rica use the term plan de vida to describe a lifelong sense of purpose. As Dr. Robert Butler, the first director of the National Institute on Aging, once told me, being able to define your life meaning adds to your life expectancy."
Market Musings
Bearish headlines are increasingly common, with Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture being the latest analyst to see a dimming profit picture as the proximate cause of a stock market decline and a recession.
While this appears irrefutable, I still expect the U.S. stock market to generate one more short-covering rally in November, which is seasonally a very strong month. This would serve to eliminate hobby Bears and fulfill "the most hated rally" scenario I mentioned previously: rallies that run counter to financial and economic trends are well-hated for ignoring fundamentals, but they have a nasty tendency to run far higher that any rational onlooker expects.
Some proponents of Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) see the SPX hitting a new annual high of 1500 or perhaps 1520. I would not dare guess where the market will end up December 1-15, but I suspect it will be higher than most expected.
If the market consistently delivered what the majority expected, every trader would be a multi-millionaire. Alas, it isn't that easy.....
From Left Field
Obama moves to make the War on Terror permanent (via Joel M.) Institutionalizing extra-legal "Kill lists". Uh, what are civil liberties again? We seem to have forgotten....
Tech Shame: "BlackBerry outcasts say that they suffer from shame and public humiliation as they watch their counterparts mingle on social networking apps that are not available to them, take higher-resolution photos, and effortlessly navigate streets — and the Internet — with better GPS and faster browsing. More indignity comes in having to outsource tasks like getting directions, booking travel, making restaurant reservations and looking up sports scores to their exasperated iPhone and Android-carting partners, friends and colleagues." Crackberry S-curve and collapse....
Why Computer Hardware is dead: "The truth is that if your company sells hardware today, your business model is essentially over. No one can make money selling hardware when faced with the cold hard truth of a $45 computer that is already shipping in volume."
"Rates for very large crude carriers, each hauling 2 million barrels of oil, plunged 55 percent to $14,320 a day this year, according to Clarkson Plc, the world’s largest shipbroker."
"history is a graveyard of aristocracies." Vilfredo Pareto
Thanks for reading--
charles
