Musings Report #11 3-16-13 Why do we read blogs?
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Why do we read blogs?
Though it may seem self-evident to those in the blogosphere, the question "why do we read blogs?" directs a critical light on our media, culture and society.
The primary reason we read blogs is the abject failure of the mainstream media:
1. The mainstream media has failed to provide independent analysis of official policy and data.
2. The mainstream media's spectrum of "opinion" is narrow and superficial, limited to columnists who repeat the same canned, increasingly disconnected-from-reality ideological perspectives.
Official "numbers" such as unemployment are unskeptically published as if they reflected reality, when even the most cursory analysis reveals the numbers are manipulated for the purpose of perception management.
While the self-interested financial sector and its partners in the Federal Reserve and Federal mortgage agencies issued one reassuring statement after another that there was no housing bubble, the painfully obvious housing bubble popped, wiping out about $10 trillion of mostly-middle class wealth.
The mainstream media's tepid attempts at journalism rarely question the carefully crafted institutional "story," and those journalists who actually bear down on financial-sector plundering are marginalized (think Max Keiser) and have to find outlets outside the U.S. This process of carefully managing "news and analysis" is what Noam Chomsky terms "manufacturing consent."
The blogosphere is the decentralized, chaotic opposite of centralized, manufactured consent. Blogs offer an immense variety of analysis and opinion, and those blogs that offer a compilation of incisive journalism and/or analysis tend to attract audiences that equal or exceed the readership of established "journals of opinion."
I also suspect that those who read blogs often happen upon them as a result of search-engine results. Those who rarely perform searches on Google, etc., may be less likely to encounter a blog in daily life.
In other words, there is a rough-and-ready natural selection process in who is drawn to reading blogs: those with little curiosity (and perhaps little experience on the web) may not perform enough searches to encounter blogs, and those who (for whatever reason) accept the unexamined cliches of the main ideologies will be satisfied with the mainstream sources that repeat their own beliefs.
Rebels, skeptics and independents will naturally find the blogosphere, while those fearing any challenge to the Status Quo will find little solace in the cacophony of the blogosphere.
Of course this desire to confirm one's existing biases plays out in the blogosphere as well: if you find a blog that endlessly repeats what you want to hear, then it becomes a web-based media equivalent of all the other media outlets designed to reinforce one's existing biases.
As a content-creator in the blogosphere, I am alive to the danger of becoming boring as a result of repeating the same message or story. Once we "get it," then our interest in reading more of the same fades. Longtime correspondent P.B. recently wrote (and I paraphrase) that his interest in finance and "doom and gloom" blogs has faded, as there were limits on what additional knowledge/insight could be gained from continued reading.
I too find my interest in various blogs wanes as I tire of the same message/content, and this is unsurprising given that most blogs are written by one or two people with limited resources. How can one person compete with a staff in generating variety?
In sum, we turn to blogs for the truth and diversity that has been edited out, often in subtle ways, from the mainstream media, whose primary "job" remains selling adverts and serving as mouthpieces for valued sources: alienate an advertiser and you've lost income. Alienate a key source and you've lost your "insider connection."
No wonder the mainstream media is so timid thus disconnected. Consider this blog entry by Barry Ritholtz, a respected blogger who I email from time to time: Bankistan Vanquishes America. (via U. Doran) Would you see this in a major corporate newspaper? Certainly not in a highly visible section under the sway of official sources and advertisers.
The blogosphere reflects the dynamism of the web itself. A number of self-styled New Media pundits were quick to claim that Twitter and Facebook had replaced blogs as the darlings of New Media, but this misrepresents the different communication spheres offered by each. Few turn to Twitter for analysis--Twitter is a feed for analysis. Few turn to Facebook for analysis--Facebook provides others' recommended links to analysis.
Ultimately, we read blogs because we seek the truth in a purposefully obfuscated economy and culture. There is a noble and enduring democracy to the blogosphere--impressive Status Quo credentials support a handful of blogs, but the meritocracy of the journalism and analysis offered far outweighs the name-recognition factor in the blogosphere.
Market Musings
What do the next few months hold in store for traders? With the S&P 500 (SPX) approaching its closing high of 1565 and all-time high of 1,576, if the past is any guide we might expect stocks to touch previous highs that are now acting as resistance and then fall back before attempting another ascent.
What happens if central bank money-printing causes inflation to rear its ugly head? Central banks (predictably) dismiss inflation as a distant concern, but the markets seem to be undecided. Indecision tends to create wedge patterns in which the highs and lows compress into a narrowing triangle.
Take a look at the commodities: oil (WTIC), gold, copper (JJC):
Interestingly, all three have traced out long-term wedges. Wedges tend to break big up or down, so we can anticipate either deflation/recession and a major decline in commodities, or inflation, which may trigger a new bull market in commodities as depreciating fiat money seeks the safety and return of real assets. Hot money may leave equities and migrate to commodities if there is more than a whiff of inflation in the air.
Rather than make a wild guess, I will look at how these markets resolve their wedges for clues about deflation/inflation.
What I am doing: long the gold miners and small oil producers, watchful waiting on the SPX. If the SPX fails at 1,565, I may well dip a toe in the short pool for a quick trade.
What I would do if I were managing $1 billion: maintain long positions in AAPL and the gold miners, and be ready to enter a small short-term short trade on SPX if it fails 1,565/1,576.
From Left Field
Not suitable for work (NSFW) dept: Icelandic Phallological Museum (via Skip W., who noted, "Please note that from the article, it is mostly women who have visited this institution.")
"Well done is better than well said." Benjamin Franklin
Thanks for reading--
charles
