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Musings Report #12 3-22-14 Flight 370 and the Robust Fragility of Complex Systems
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For those who are new to the Musings reports: they are basically a glimpse into my notebook,the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.
Flight 370 and the Robust Fragility of Complex Systems
The disappearance of Malaysian Air Flight 370, not in a sudden nosedive into the sea, but a baffling multi-hour flight to oblivion, has sparked a variety of commentary on the limits of technology and even of knowledge itself.
While such ruminations are understandable, what strikes me is 1) our astonishment that a 250-ton aircraft could fly for 7+ hours and evade electronic detection for much of the flight; 2) the complexity of the system that tracks commercial aircraft and 3) the incredibly robust reliability of commercial air travel.
There are some 80,000 commercial flights a day, and some 3 million every year. What is truly staggering is how few accidents or mishaps occur despite a wealth of potential hazards and opportunities for snafus.
Like virtually everyone else who doesn't work in the field of commercial aviation, I have learned a bit about the complex system of air traffic control, ACARS, etc. It was news to me that long-distance flights over water are not directly tracked, and that military radar in some places is switched off at night when the crew goes home.
The safety record of the system is even more impressive given that these long-distance flights over water are truly on their own.
The astonishment that Flight 370 could fly thousands of miles undetected brings to mind the disbelief of experts and the public alike in 1912 that the safest capital ship--the Titanic--on the seas could sink on its maiden Atlantic crossing, and not just sink but do so with a horrendous loss of life: 700 survived and about 1,500 perished.
Flight 370 is different from the Titanic, of course, in that human intervention is suspected, based on various pieces of evidence.
In other words, the aircraft's path may not have been the consequence of a fateful mechanical failure--an intrinsically random event--but the result of human intent.
Since no straightforward scenario (catastrophic fire, pilot suicide, hijacking, etc.) fits all the data, it may well be that MH370's bizarre flight path might be a combination of human intent, unanticipated conflict and mechanical failure, culminating in the aircraft ending up on a course to nowhere, guided by autopilot, until it ran out of fuel.
The phrase "robust fragility" sounds like a contradiction, but I use it to suggest that complex systems can be extremely reliable and robust while masking vulnerabilities that are not visible because they result from an unexpected causal chain of events.
Summary of the Blog This Past Week
What's Cooking at Our House: Chinese-Style Onion Flatbread (3/22/14)
The Federal Reserve: Masters of the Universe or Trapped Incompetents? (3/21/14)
To Eliminate Flight 370 Theories, Start with a Ruler, Pencil and Map (3/20/14)
Pay Our Pensions Or We'll Throw You in Jail: the Legalization of Looting (3/19/14)
The Five-Year Fantasy Is Ending (3/18/14)
Finally, a Plausible Scenario of What Happened to Flight 370 (3/17/14)
Legalized looting is a very under-reported trend in local government, but one that will become more of an issue in the upcoming recession.
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Planting lettuce, radish, spinach, cilantro, parsley and zucchini in our little patch of earth, and harvesting some beautiful chard and kale.
Market Musings
All sorts of indices are hitting resistance: stocks, commodities and the dollar, to mention three. Assets that looked to be breaking out fell back at resistance (gold and some commodities). The internal measures of the stock market keep weakening: inisders are selling, margin debt is at record levels, volume is poor on up days and higher on down days, rallies fizzle out at resistance, the number of stocks hitting new highs is diminishing, and so on.
Geopolitical issues are bubbling but these haven't stopped the S&P 500 from hitting a new nominal high--a high it couldn't hold.
I repeat myself, but this is all of a piece with the agonizingly slow process of craving out a major top: a slow deterioration of market internals, a dwindling number of leaders, thinning volume, and so on. Recognizing all this does not speed up the process, but it nurtures our patience to let the thing reach an apex before betting on the inevitable roll-over decline.
If it were easy to predict such major moves, we'd all be millionaires. We're not all millionaires because it is essentially impossible to to predict these sorts of semi-chaotic events with any precision. We can, however, anticipate their unfolding, and that enables us to exit risky positions and conserve cash/protect capital.
Various signs suggest a major bottom will develop around Q3 2015 or perhaps early 2016. I predict there will be relatively few with cash by the time the bottom is finally in, and the bargains will go to those few. Let's be one of those few, shall we?
From Left Field
Holland's Got Talent: Amira Willighagen sings: YouTube (via Lynette F.) -- I would say this 9-year old girl's stunningly mature and haunting performance of Puccini's 'O mio babbino caro' (Oh My Beloved Father) was lip-synced but it's legit... well worth a listen, especially if you're having a lousy day...
"The disbelief at the powerful voice emanating from such a small girl was compounded when Amira revealed that she had not had any singing lessons but was self-taught, using YouTube tutorials."
Mother’s storybook photos become viral sensation (via Cindy F.) "The Russian photographer transports her viewers into a beautiful world that revolves around her two little sons and their adorable pets — scenes literally out of a storybook. Elena’s use of natural light, colors, and her enchanting rural surroundings have not only made her photography both cozy and heartwarming, but also has received around 50 million views."
This link has a voiceover audio track by the photographer. Here is Elena Shumilova's flickr site.
China real-estate worries growing louder -- going mainstream...
Chicken bones tell true story of Pacific migration -- talk about oracle bones...
Ninety Percent of Everything: Inside Shipping, the Invisible Industry That Puts Clothes on Your Back, Gas in Your Car, and Food on Your Plate
China's "Minsky Moment" Is Here, Morgan Stanley Finds "It now takes 4 renminbi (RMB) of debt to create 1 renminbi of GDP growth from a nearly 1:1 ratio in the early and mid-2000s."
We need more scientific mavericks (via Lew G.)
Why African-Americans are moving back to the South (via Cindy F.)
OF HIPPOS AND KINGS (via Lew G.) "Cline is concerned with figuring out all the ingredients in the “ ‘perfect storm’ that brought down the flourishing cultures and peoples of the Bronze Age."
What is the world’s scarcest material? (via Steve K.)
Is Having Grit The Key To Success? About Angela Lee Duckworth's TEDTalk
Malcolm Gladwell: Tell People What It's Really Like To Be A Doctor -- relating to sickcare...
In France, a Quest to Convert a Sea Snail Plague Into a Culinary Pleasure (via Katharine K.)
France's Reckoning: Rich, Young Flee Welfare State -- the causal consequence of a welfare state and the End of Work...
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. Marcus Aurelius
Thanks for reading--
charles
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