Musings Report #15   4-10-14   Defying a Bewildering Economy 

 
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For those who are new to the Musings reports: they are basically a glimpse into my notebook,the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.

An Apology Regarding Email

I want to thank everyone who has emailed me in the past two months, and apologize for the lack of response.  The past eight months have been an over-scheduled blur, and 2014 has been even more exhausting. My days have been a vortex of competing demands, and finishing my book has absorbed what's left of my focus. (Never mind finishing my tax returns.) I greatly appreciate your understanding and forbearance.

Defying a Bewildering Economy 

After many months of toil, my new book Get a Job, Build a Real Career, and Defy a Bewildering Economy is now available on Kindle. (The print version should be available next week.)

The list price is $9.95, but the Kindle ebook is available for subscribers and major contributors at a 50% discount ($4.95) for Thursday, Friday and Saturday only. After midnight PST Saturday, the price returns to retail ($9.95).

This book would make a practical graduation gift. If you send it as a gift (the gift button is on the right sidebar in the Amazon.com page linked above), you can select a delivery date in May or June that coincides with the recipient's graduation ceremony.

It may also prove useful to anyone struggling with education and career choices (for example, "should I go back to graduate school?").

Why do I say the economy is bewildering?  Even the basic concept of getting a job has changed so radically that over the last couple of years I found that jobs - getting them, keeping them, and the perceived lack of them - has been the number one financial topic among friends, family, and for that matter, complete strangers.

So I sat down and wrote this book, which details everything I've verified about employment and the economy, and lays out an action plan to get anyone willing to follow the guidelines employed.

I am proud of this book. It is the culmination of joining both my practical work experiences (which have been eclectic, to say the least) and my financial research and analysis. I have worked relentlessly to make it a useful, practical, and clarifying read.

Here is the Introduction:

This book stakes out a much larger territory than conventional career counseling books, and it does so out of necessity:  the economy is changing and it now takes a much broader understanding to secure a livelihood. 

In the conventional view, the jobseeker needs to figure out only one thing to get a job: his interests and talents, i.e. self-knowledge.  Conventional career counseling books are designed to help jobseekers gain this self-knowledge, which is presumed to be the missing ingredient in a successful job search.

But self-knowledge is only one-fourth of what’s needed to secure a livelihood in today’s economy. We must also understand the emerging economy—the parts of the economy that are expanding and offering opportunity—and the changing nature of work.  Lastly, we must understand the role of lifelong learning in the emerging economy.

Just learning about yourself is no longer enough; that’s the equivalent of being tossed into a wilderness with no map, compass, GPS or supplies and being told that you’ll be fine because you know your interests and talents. 

Jobseekers need to understand the economy and the world of work they’re navigating; without that knowledge, they’re flying blind and the odds are not in their favor.

This book is designed to tilt the odds in your favor, whether you are a high school or college student, a recent college graduate, someone pondering graduate school to advance their career, someone recently laid off from a job or someone re-entering the workforce after a long absence.  As the title says, it’s for everyone seeking a livelihood whether they have a college degree or not.  It is designed for parents, grandparents, employers and supervisors, school and career counselors and anyone else who may be helping others sort education and career choices.

As General Douglas MacArthur noted, “There is no security on this earth, there is only opportunity.” There are no guarantees; all we can do is shift the odds in our favor through our own efforts and learn to recognize opportunity. 

This book gives you the knowledge and tools you need to shift the odds in your favor. 

Think of this book as a compact college-level course on one of life’s most important projects: establishing and managing a livelihood.

You may wonder why we can’t just jump to a checklist of actions you can take today.  The answer is simple: your advantage is knowledge.  A checklist does not confer knowledge or understanding.  If you want to tip the odds in your favor, you have to understand where the checklist comes from and how it works.

The deeper the knowledge, the more difficult it is to acquire.  Anyone can follow a checklist, but only the person with an understanding of the situation can solve new problems and create value. These two skills are central in the emerging economy.

I will be your guide on this journey, and rest assured that I have experienced every aspect of this journey, as student, job seeker, employee, employer, mentor, and beginner.  I have studied the major dynamics in our economy and society in depth so I can offer you the practical knowledge you will need to tilt the odds in your favor, whatever field you enter and whatever your present situation.

The economy is undergoing a tumultuous transformation that will last our entire lives. We can bemoan what will be lost and demand that the present remain unchanged, but technology and life do not stand still; they advance, evolve and adapt.  We have a simple choice: we can cling to what is already lost and go down with the ship or we can advance and adapt along with life and technology.

Security comes not from a government guarantee but from embracing opportunity.  Security is scarce, opportunity is abundant. It’s our choice: we can compete with the herd crowding around the dwindling pool of supposedly secure jobs or we can escape those poor odds and learn how to recognize opportunity, solve new problems and create value.

Joining the increasingly restive herd jostling for a place at the pool’s edge guarantees a scarcity of winners and an abundance of losers, an imbalance that insures unhappiness and frustration.

The odds favor those who look elsewhere for opportunity, and those with an ability to solve new problems and create value in a variety of circumstances. If that sounds good, this is the book for you.


Summary of the Blog This Past Week

Now That the U.S. and China Have Picked the Low-Hanging Fruit, Peak Everything Looms  4/10/14

Fed to the Sharks, Part 2: Housing and the Death of the Middle Class 4/9/14

Fed to the Sharks, Part 1: The Fed Takes Our Money, Gives It to Banks Who Loan It Back to Us at 16% 4/8/14

And the Next Big Thing Is ... Degrowth? 4/7/14

I have been exploring "low-hanging fruit" as an analogy for strategies that worked wonderfully in the past but no longer work now that the fundamental circumstances have changed.


Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week

Got the book ready for the Chosen Few (i.e. you) and finished my taxes--an absurdly time-consuming, arduous task that unduly punishes the self-employed. 

Market Musings

Treacherous--that sums up the markets nicely, in my view.  Sharp declines are followed by equally sharp recoveries which are then followed by even sharper declines. All of this churn has left the SPX at roughly the same place it started the year.

This churn has been ideal for day-traders and those holding positions no longer than a few days, but it has been difficult to trade for trend-followers. So far, I feel my call to stay out of the markets until late April/early May has proven prescient.

This churn is  typical of tops: rallies get sold hard, dips get bought by those trained by five years of rewards to "buy the dips," insiders are selling, margin debt is at new highs, and Bears, ruthlessly battered by five years of rallies, exit the moment a recovery gains a foothold.

This battle between complacent Bulls and skittish Bears typically plays out for months, until a major trend establishes itself. Until then, it's a day-traders' game in my view.

From Left Field

Naturally thin Yale student 'forced to stuff her face with Cheetos and ice cream' because school officials who thought she had eating disorder threatened to expel her over 90 lbs frame -- politically-correct bureaucracy at work...

8 Incredibly Useful Japanese Words That Have No English Equivalent -- not sure they deserve "incredibly"--my favorite Nihongo word with no equivalent is aware -- the evocative sadness arising from an appreciation of the passage of time

Brad Feld outlines “Boulder Thesis” in Kauffman Sketchbook (Video) -- how entrepreneurs can create start-up communities that serve as "incubators" for new businesses.

The Art of Complex problem-Solving (graphic)

Why the 'Next Silicon Valley' Is Always Silicon Valley -- what I've always thought....

Why the “Next Silicon Valley” Doesn’t Really Exist
Lots of people want to create another innovation hub like Silicon Valley. Here’s why they’ll all fail.

In Innovation Quest, Regions Seek Critical Mass: What’s the secret to becoming the next technology hot spot?

U.S. Navy to test futuristic, super-fast gun at sea in 2016

graphic depiction of the depth where Flight 370 went down -- this helps us visualize an ocean depth of 4,500 meters (14,700 feet).... water world, indeed.

Looking For Tom Lehrer, Comedy’s Mysterious Genius

Tom Lehrer - The Vatican Rag (video)

Why Do We Overeat? A Neurobiological Perspective (via Ishabaka M.D.)
"This is 46 minutes, long, dry, and you will almost certainly have to have taken Physiology 101 to understand, but is the best explanation of obesity I've yet seen. It's all evidence based, no speculation.  The speaker; who has, a PhD,  explains how we have gone from about 2% to I believe 32% of meals eaten outside the home - supporting your idea that a home-cooked meal is a revolutionary act."

"Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events." Robert A. Heinlein

Thanks for reading--
 
charles