Musings Report #16 4-18-14 The 3-D Economy
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For those who are new to the Musings reports: they are basically a glimpse into my notebook,the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.
The 3-D Economy
In an era when "office work" is digital and networked, what sort of sense does it make to insist tens of millions of workers spend precious time and petrol commuting to vast concentrations of cubicles?
Our Cubicles, Ourselves: How the Modern Office Shapes American Life
We're told people don't work productively without supervision, but 17 million self-employed people working at home suggest that is not entirely true.
What is true is the incentives and disincentives in the industrial-era regime of 40-hour work weeks in service to single-company/agency hierarchies do not encourage the sorts of mindsets and behaviors that nurture self-directed productivity.
This entire scheme of aggregating people to perform digital-networked work is absolutely ripe for massive disruption, along with the current understanding of "work" as something done for one centralized, hierarchically organized employer.
In a parallel fashion, the rise of cheap 3-D fabrication technology (3-D printing) will disrupt the entire scheme of long supply chains stretching across the Pacific and complex distribution channels to corporate retail outlets.
Distributed energy production and manufacturing enable a lower cost and more resilient, adaptable structure. The economies of scale that global corporations and states depend on for their competitive advantages are no longer possible in a 3-D distributed economy.
At-home 3-D printing could save consumers 'thousands'
Why buy a $20 iPhone case at a retail outlet, or order it online for $15, when you can fabricate your own for 27 cents of electricity and feedstock plastic?
Why not print a few hundred and sell them at the swap meet for $5 each?
Just off the top of my head, I can imagine many small niche businesses created out of fabricating parts that are hard to get, no longer available or costly.
Correspondent Mark G. often refers to "Watson & Baxter Nation" in our email exchanges about the disruptive potential of new technologies. By this he is referring to is the economy that results when cheap processing power and software (Watson) and low-cost adaptable robots (Baxter) start replacing factories at the end of long supply chains, workers in cubicle farms and retail outlets in malls. What we are seeing already is simply the first trickle of disruptive technology than will soon be a tide.
The entire electrical grid is also ripe for disruption, at least at the micro-level.
Global solar dominance in sight as science trumps fossil fuels
The advent of low-cost photo-voltaic technology enables an entire spectrum of small industries to generate their own power on-site and opt out of the horrendously wasteful process of transferring electricity over long power lines.
While I am alert to the danger of placing an over-abundance of faith in miraculous technologies, the technologies described above already exist. What's needed is social/cultural/symbolic capital innovations that enable their widespread use, what I call the community economy.
What is especially exciting about the 3-D economy is that it enables tremendous savings in energy and cost--the core benefits of the Degrowth economy.
Summary of the Blog This Past Week
It's Time to Retire Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a Measure of Prosperity 4/18/14
It's Time to Ditch the Consumer Price Index (CPI) 4/17/14
What's the Difference Between Fascism, Communism and Crony-Capitalism? Nothing 4/16/14
The Alienation of Work 4/15/14
How To Get a Job Despite the Economy 4/14/14
What's Cooking at our House: Appam and Sambar 4/12/14
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Italian Ciambella ring-cake, made to celebrate the launch of my book, which briefly hit #1 in the sub-category of "job hunting" on Kindle (still clinging to #4).
Market Musings
Cycles are not necessarily predictive, but to the degree they reflect human nature's propensity to take markets to extremes of greed/complacency and fear, they're worth studying, especially at junctures where the long-term trend has eroded and may be reversing (like now).
Consider these dates of major lows:
1974
1987
2002
2014-15?
While these troughs aren't exact, it is somewhat striking that these are about 13-14 years apart. There are number variations on this, including a 17-year cycle, but the point is that a number of cycles seem to line up with a major low in 2015.
Another cycle that's apparent within the last three bubbles and declines is bull markets that run for 5-6 years and then collapse in less than two years.
1995-2000
2000-2002
2002-2007
2008-2009
2009-2014
??
In my terminology, bull markets run out of oxygen after about 5 years, at which point the bubble deflates. The crazy volatility I have been discussing in 2014 is strong evidence of a topping pattern. It does not suggest healthy market or a sustained advance.
From Left Field
The Ten Least Successful Holiday Specials of All Time (via Lew G.) -- wickedly clever satire of pop-culture icons, from Ayn Rand to Star Trek
Sad Desk Lunch: Is This How You Want to Die? (2:47 video) "Sad Desk Lunch is a public health hazard." How to avoid working through lunch, and diseases related to social isolation.
Industrial Production A High Energy Good News – Bad News Story -- subtract energy and the economy would look a lot worse.
The typical worker makes no more than Dad did in 1979 -- but what about total compensation costs, i.e. healthcare insurance and pensions/401Ks?
How Burrowing Owls Lead To Vomiting Anarchists (Or SF’s Housing Crisis Explained) (via Lew G.) -- long but comprehensive, and with no ideological agenda....
Beijing Snapshot: Taobao Girls (via Maoxian) -- first-hand account of "leftover women," 28-year olds with no interest in conservative marriage that would end their agency and careers...
The Richest Man In Asia Is Selling Everything In China -- hmm, and why is he selling out? Credit bubble popping, perhaps?
10 Things Japan Gets Incredibly Right -- not sure about "incredibly," but all good points and occasionally amusing...
Observations From A Tipless Restaurant, Part 1 (via Kurt A.) -- not just a commentary on restaurants, but on business and human nature....
Bryan Caplan on College, Signaling and Human Capital (via Dave C.) Long but important. Signaling value of a diploma is declining....
Explaining income inequality by household demographics -- want to be well-off? Be a married couple, both of whom work....
Chinese Thunder God Herb Works as Well as Pain Therapy -- but only costs a fraction of Big Pharma's drugs....
“It is not true that people stop pursuing dreams because they grow old, they grow old because they stop pursuing dreams.” Gabriel Garcia Marquez
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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