Musings Report #19 5-9-14 Changing Set Points

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Changing Set Points

Many of my musings arise from my search for analogies/metaphors that cut through the overwhelming signal noise of data and empty narratives that pass for "news and analysis" and distill the core dynamics in ways we can intuitively understand.

One recent example was my suggestion that metabolic syndrome, the insulin/sugar insensitivity at the heart of pre-diabetes, was an apt analogy for why the Federal Reserve's easy-money/easy credit policy (Quantitative Easing) would fail to stem the next recession/decline in the stock market. In effect, the market and economy are losing their sensitivity to lower interest rates and money-printing that fuels speculation by financiers.

I have been pondering set points as an analogy for our difficulty in making transformative changes in our own lives and in society. In my own experience, I have found the theory that body weight tends to settle on a set point and resist efforts to re-set weight below that point to be experientially true, though the clinical evidence for this is apparently controversial/unsettled.

The basic idea is related to homeostasis, the notion that systems self-regulate to maintain stable internal conditions. Our bodies operate a number of such systems that keep pH (acidity), salt, glucose, oxygen, temperature, etc. within narrow bounds, even if the environment becomes extreme. The more extreme the environmental pressures (for example, hunger or thirst), the greater the exertion required to keep the system in balance.

Set point takes this idea one step further by highlighting the frustration we feel when we want to make changes (for example, losing weight) and our best efforts generate little discernible change.

The incentives we begin with fade as our efforts yield poor results: our weight is unchanged, our job search is still fruitless, we still haven't found a compatible soul, we're still financially insecure, etc.

This aptly describes the writing life as experienced by most writers: unceasing effort yields near-zero results. I received an email this week from another writer who asked (plaintively, at least in my imagination): "How long did it take before you sold your first Kindle book? Mine has been out for three weeks already." I looked at his link and voila, the answer was painfully obvious: his ebook was fiction.

I have tried to gain a readership for my own fiction for eight years and failed miserably. It's a very difficult goal to achieve. I took time I didn't have to briefly explain to the writer that with tens of thousands of novels out there already, any writer seeking a readership needed to nurture that readership with ceaseless promotion and outreach. (I did not add that even this might not yield results in fiction.)

My efforts to help other writers understand the reality of the market for writing almost always go unrewarded; the gent did not even bother to respond, much less thank me. Responses from newbie writers range from morbid silence to occasional cranky defiance, as in "I'm going to prove you wrong by quitting my bond-trading job and finishing my novel!"

We all know why my description of the harsh realities of gaining readers, recognition and sales do not elicit gratitude: what we want to hear is the "one weird trick" (that gimmick is all over the web now) that delivers what we want without complicated, sustained effort and the grind of constant rejection/no positive feedback.

My point in raising the tragic-comic difficulties of gaining a readership for one's novels is context and relativity: compared to the truly impossible, such as writing a film script and selling it to Hollywood, losing weight or finding a job suddenly appear eminently do-able.

Set-point systems such as homeostasis operate on hard-wired feedback loops; there is no incentive necessary for our bodies to want to breathe, eat, stay warm, etc. But conscious effort requires a plan and incentives, and if those incentives are eroded by the frustration created by unrealistic expectations, then failure results--not from a lack of effort, but from a lack of sustainability and realistic expectations.

We all naturally want to lose weight in a week, but exercise tends to replace the weight of fat burned with added muscle. Those looking for weight loss in the short-term will likely be frustrated and prone to giving up since there is little visible positive feedback for their efforts. Those looking for improved fitness, on the other hand, will see the gains in fitness and set the failure to lose weight aside.

The writer seeking a Hollywood hit right out of the gate, or sales the moment their novel hits the Kindle Store will be hugely disappointed, while the writer who is focused on improving their writing and enjoying the process will be constitutionally prepared to accept the failure to gain an audience or a Hollywood contract as the expected path for 99.99% of beginners.

A focus on the resistance of set points to our conscious effort can become a prison of the mind. In expecting instant real-world results, or a certain kind of result, are we demanding more than the system can deliver? Are we ignoring other positive results in our focus on one specific result we have set as the goal?

I think the difficulty in moving set points reflects deeper truths about the world and ourselves: it is terribly difficult to push the envelope of the real world, whether it is our own fitness/weight, employment, wealth, etc., or the world around us. But we can nudge the set points within our own behaviors, habits amd thoughts. Pushing those set points isn't easy by any means, but at least they are within our control.

Despite the initial lack of gratifying results from most effort to change set points, beneath the surface we are getting results: we're gaining muscle and endorphins from improved fitness, we're improving our writing/job-hunting/trading skills despite the parade of set-backs, and learning to adjust our expectations to sustain our resolve and our plan.

No wonder we resist change most of the time; the set point is an attractor that is difficult to slide. Feeding our frustration is the annoying reality that progress is often "lumpy"--after weeks (or in some cases, years) of fruitless effort, progress suddenly appears in an unpredictable fashion.

I think one key to moving the envelope of the real world and the set points in our own mind is to fashion a process you can enjoy and incentives that are sustainable. If you can't dredge up any other incentive to walk a mile, then promise yourself a favorite candy bar upon completion. Though this may appear counter-productive, sustaining the process and the incentives is more important than counting the calories of immediate results.

Summary of the Blog This Past Week

The Decline of Small Business and the Middle Class 5/9/14

The Changing Nature of Middle Class Work 5/8/14

How the Middle Class Lifestyle Became Unaffordable 5/7/14

The Destabilizing Truth: Only the Wealthy Can Afford a Middle Class Lifestyle 5/6/14

Coppock Market Message: Get Out and Stay Out--Check Back in Q1 2015 5/5/14

This week was dedicated to an examination of the decline of the middle class. Traffic was heavier than normal (roughly 20,000 page views per day, plus another 13K+ on Zero Hedge), suggesting an abiding interest in the topic.

Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week

My new book has remained in the top 10 of the Kindle Store's category "Job Hunting" for four weeks (minus a brief dip to #11 for a few hours). This is the longest any of my books has remained in the top 10 of a specific category, so I am cautiously hopeful that "Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy" might have some staying power.

Market Musings

Take a look at these charts of gold and the US dollar (USD). Both seem to have traced out wedges/triangles on the weekly charts.

These are often viewed as "continuation" patterns, and though I see little evidence that the USD and gold are as correlated as many believe, triangles tend to be broken big up or down. Will gold break out of its downtrend, or triple-bottom? Will the USD break down or up out of the wedge to the upside? I suspect the USD will break out to the upside in a continuation of the move off its lows a few years ago. Stay tuned...

From Left Field

Sayaka Shoji plays Tchaikovsky's Violin Concerto -- last week I posted a link to Heifetz's rendition of the 1st movement. It's always fun to hear several interpretations of any piece that resonates with you. This young violinist hits her stride a few minutes into the concerto--sent chills up my spine after the 8-minute mark. Her expression as she glances up at the conductor--moments of oneness leavened by the occasional smile--are utterly charming.

The Way You Make Me Feel (Michael Jackson Cover/4:25 video) by Kawehi-- this young Hawaii-based performer gives a tutorial on using loops to create background vocals -- check out her two dogs... makes me smile....

The novel is dead (this time it's for real) -- are we losing the ability to even read complex long-form literature? Perhaps...

Why reforming China could be an impossible mission -- same old, same old: authoritarian rule incentivized with rampant corruption.

Marijuana Legalization Begins to Undermine Drug Cartels -- as anyone could have predicted....

5 reason why Starbucks is the only office you need -- ditch the rent, keep the money yourself...

Grandma Never Had It So Good -- in-law housing units legal in Portland Oregon (via Joel M.)

Can Cell Phones Stop Crime in the World's Murder Capitals? -- distributed systems at work...

Marin Museum of Bicycling to construct Mt. Tamalpais Legacy Wall (site via Joel M.) -- Good to see some recognition of the misfits and non-conformists who invented a multi-billion dollar, environmentally powerful industry on the dirt trails of Mt. Tam.... reminds me of the Silicon Valley hackers and SoCal skateboarders....

The Cities Where Americans Bike and Walk to Work -- Portland leads the list...

Millionaires Won't Lift Us Up, But Cooperation & the Solidarity Economy Might (via Lew G.)

Your Genes Are Obsolete (via Steve K.)
The very idea of a gene as a well-defined segment of DNA with a clear functional role has also taken a hit, and as a result, our understanding of our relationship with our genes is changing.

"Poetry is the social act of the solitary man." W.B. Yeats

Thanks for reading--

charles