Musings Report #34 8-24-14 Our Self-Contained Cocoons
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Our Self-Contained Cocoons
Long-time readers know that I often use the Musings to explore a subject without a specific thesis--in other words, I am not postulating a position and defending it or critiquing it.
This week's subject came up in conversation in June with my brother-in-law Fred R. during our tour of craft breweries (all in the name of research, of course).
One trend in technology is the perfection of self-contained cocoons which consolidate a variety of creature comforts and entertainments into one consumption package--a vehicle, a room, a dwelling--that minimizes the need to go outside the cocoon for novelty or connections to the outside world.
This can be viewed as one aspect of the larger technological trend of convergence, in which a variety of devices and media platforms are merged into one device/platform.
For example, a smartphone now hosts a library of reading material, videos and music as well as ports to amplify the media on speakers or video displays. The smartphone also enables texting, email and phone conversations to friends and contacts in the outside world without actually venturing out into the world.
What are the consequences of this empowering yet isolating convergence of comfort, communication and entertainment technology? What are the long-term consequences for venues and places in the real world?
Some have argued that the isolation and physical loneliness created by self-contained cocoons actually sparks a deeper hunger for contact with others in the real world of cafes, theaters, concerts, sports events and lively streets.
This may well be true, but it is inherently difficult to study due to the internal nature of loneliness, digital distraction and the often subtle pleasures and equally often irritations of mixing with strangers in the real world. People may report one thing and do another.
The over-riding fact is that it is no longer necessary to go to a theater to see a movie, to a concert to hear high-fidelity music or a game to watch sports. This is of course not new; 78 RPM long-playing records allowed home concerts and television enabled home theaters. But the quality and convergence of these communication/entertainment technologies has changed not just the quality of the sound/video but of the experience itself.
Add in the delivery of food, both groceries via Amazon Prime and prepared food, and the necessity to engage the real world is greatly diminished in our self-contained cocoons.
Ironically, as outings in the real world (as I noted Saturday) become increasingly unaffordable for the bottom 90% ($200 to attend a baseball game, etc.), this adds to the reasons to stay home and watch the game/event on TV.
What is lost in minimizing engagement with the real world? I wonder about civic disengagement when a populace rarely experiences their city's street life directly. I also wonder about communication skills and tolerance for dealing with others when we can design our cocoon to avoid the costs and difficulties of moving around the real world and interacting with people who may get in the way of our desired goal.
Is the substitution of digital communication and novelty for engaging the world empowering in new ways? This too is an open question.
What I Learned/Gained from Readers this week
Longtime correspondent Joel M., who plies his trade on the open seas, recently shared a series of breathtaking photos of dolphins playing just beyond the ship's bow-wake. Joel reports:
"These were taken while crossing the Gulf of Mexico during our last hitch that just ended this week. It doesn't get like this often, but when it does it's a sight to behold.
No digital trickery here, either: the water really is that blue. What you see is what we saw."
Summary of the Blog This Past Week
Is the $5 Bill the New $1 Bill? 8/23/14
Why the Fed Must Taper 8/23/14
The Crazy-Making Fed 8/21/14
The Housing Bubble's Silver Lining 8/20/14
Are Capital Inflows Propping Up U.S. Markets? 8/19/14
Don't Think It Won't Happen Just Because It Hasn't Happened Yet: Loss of Faith in the Fed 8/18/14
I think Bateson's double bind has much to offer in terms of explaining the deeply crazy-making nature of modern experience.
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
A brief mini-vacation to the Butte County Fair (Calif.), the Chinese Temple Museum in oroville and the splendid canyon of the North Fork of the Feather River.
Market Musings: A drop, then another "buy the dip"?
Here are two charts of the S&P 500 (SPX): the daily and the weekly. The two charts seem to suggest two different trends: the daily chart looks very amenable to a decline from overbought extremes and the resistance formed by previous highs.
Open gaps at 1970 and 1987 were both filled by the furious 10-day rally, leaving no attractors to higher prices but the round number of 2,000. Meanwhile, an open gap below at 1,955 is begging to be filled by a decline.
The weekly chart, however, seems to augur another rise, as MACD seems to be approaching a positive cross (buy signal) and the stochastic just crossed into a buy. RSI isnot yet overbought, signaling room for more advance.
These charts support the idea (being bounced around various TA sites) that the markets are primed for a reversal here to support--the minimum target being the open gap at 1,955--followed by yet another "buy the dip" rally that allows RSI, MACD and stochastics to reach overbought levels that would usher in a potentially larger decline.
As always, as traders we take each phase one step at a time, and play it as it lays at the close of each trading day.
From Left Field
Where people who live in each state were born -- interesting display of info....
Excellent Sheep: The Miseducation of the American Elite and the Way to a Meaningful Life -- stinging indictment of Ivy league universities and the presumptions of the top 5% who strive to graduate from them....
Magician tries to sell weed to a police officer--hilarity ensues
Knocking Down the Great Firewall of China -- using a peer-to-peer network, Lantern
How Exercise Helps Us Tolerate Pain -- this is highly useful pain management...
Our Microbiome May Be Looking Out for Itself -- that craving for sugar may be your bacteria craving sugar....
New to the Archaeologist’s Tool Kit: The Drone
We Don't Need No Education (via Ryan S.) -- extolling the benefits of an education in Nature with a minimum of book-learning....
In the Sharing Economy, Workers Find Both Freedom and Uncertainty -- no mention of a different kind of security
The Great Chinese Exodus: Many Chinese are leaving for cleaner air, better schools and more opportunity. But Beijing is keeping its eye on them.
Economists Don't Understand The Information Age, So Their Claims About Today's Economy Are A Joke (via Lew G.) a very important message--we optimize the metrics we have, even if they're inaccurate...
5 reasons Americans are unhappy --
"The rate of antidepressant use has surged 400% over the last decade, according to the CDC, though that may also be due to the heavy marketing of drugs like Zoloft, Lexapro and Paxil."
20 Signs You’re Succeeding In Life Even If You Don’t Feel You Are -- an outlier--a positive "list" ...
Extreme weather across the globe -- compelling photos....
"God is a comedian playing to an audience that is too afraid to laugh." - Voltaire
Thanks for reading--
charles
