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Musings Report #50 12-13-14 All You Need Is Love--and Rivalry
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All You Need Is Love--and Rivalry
I've been reading a well-researched biography of the Beatles, Shout! Originally written in 1980 just before the murder of John Lennon, the book was updated in 2003, two years after the death of George Harrison.
The Beatles are worthy of study for a number of reasons beyond their music. They are one of the most well-documented groups of people on the planet, so it's relatively easy to not only read about them but see film clips of them performing and interacting with each other. In other words, we can reach our own conclusions rather than accept only second-hand reports.
As a result, we can use the Beatles to draw lessons on creativity, collaboration and leadership.
The Beatles are an interesting study of group dynamics. The four were together for their entire ride from obscurity to global fame and fortune, and the four distinct personalities created a spectrum of group interactions from genius collaboration to extremes of pettiness. While most of our petty jealousies and conflicts are safely obscured from public view, the Beatles' conflicts were all exposed by the relentless spotlight of fame.
In this sense, their conflicts are open to study in ways we often lack even with close friends, whose goriest private arguments and most intimate betrayals may remain confidential.
I picked up this book fascinated by three questions:
1. How did the social and cultural context of Liverpool in the late 1950s and early 1960s influence their characters, creativity and success?
2. How did three of the four working-class kids from a port city become musical geniuses?
3. What does their complex dynamic of collaboration and conflict reveal about humans working closely together in small groups?
The rivalry and competition between band founder John Lennon and Paul McCartney has long been a central part of the Beatles narrative, and for good reason. Teenager John reportedly hesitated to invite Paul into the group in 1957, as this would introduce a rival for leadership--which is exactly what happened.
But on the other hand, the resulting musical rivalry generated a collaborative competition that spurred both to compose hundreds of songs, working alone at times but also working together. This competition built the expertise that could only be gained from composing hundreds of songs. Without the rivalry and competition, neither would have achieved what they achieved together.
The combination of competition and collaboration enabled the sum to reach creative heights that were unattainable to the individuals, for a number of reasons. Few of us push ourselves hard enough to excel on our own; being spurred on by friendly competition pushes us to do our best.
Working intimately with equals filters out our weak ideas; what we accept as "good enough" on our own is rightly rejected by others as "not good enough."
No matter how brilliant, we each tend to get stuck in ruts. John and Paul often supplied the "middle eight" bridge for the other's song when the primary composer ran out of ideas or had come up with a weak bridge. The musical tension between the chorus and the bridge was part of the collaboratively written Beatles songs' genius.
But rivalry for leadership pays fewer dividends, and the conflicts arising from Paul's ascent to dominance generated enduring bitterness, pettiness and lawsuits.
The dynamics of leadership are as complicated as the personalities involved, but we can generalize that John always considered himself the founder and leader, and he resented Paul taking control of many aspects of the band after the death of manager Brian Epstein. George resented Paul's control in the studio and his desire to play all the song's parts himself, leaving little room for creativity or collaboration.
Yet John essentially abandoned the leadership role after Epstein's death, leaving a vacuum that Paul naturally filled. In effect, John wanted to retain his founder's influence, even if he no longer did the heavy lifting of actual leadership.
George tired of being limited to a song or two per album as the junior songwriter, and as his later career showed, he was fully capable of providing leadership when given the chance.
Each of these sources of leadership conflict arose as the result of each individual's core character. Each was simply being themselves, but without an external guiding/limiting hand (in the years of relative harmony, provided by manager Brian Epstein), their characters sabotaged the band's leadership. Competition that was productive musically was not productive in terms of leadership.
Just as John felt the band was always his to lead (whenever he chose to), Paul chafed at the rudderless vacuum left by Epstein's death and George chafed at Paul's innate drive to control everything. Ringo played the part of peacemaker, simply because he had no stake in either the leadership or the creative control.
Brian Epstein was an effective, if limited, manager in the touring years, but once the band abandoned touring and retreated to the studio, Epstein was out of his element and could not provide any guidance or leadership. In other words, the creative development of the band marooned Epstein's critical leadership role and deprived the band of a much-needed outside source of guidance.
The album Paul tried to lead/control, Let It Be, was a conflict-ridden disappointment; the album that was recorded in the final burst of equal collaboration, Abbey Road, was a triumph. (The guiding role of producer George Martin is a musical equivalent of the business guidance provided by Epstein.)
I think there are multiple lessons about leadership to be extracted from the Beatles' short but vibrant history. Leadership that worked in one phase (John's in the early years of relative obscurity, Epstein's in the glory years of touring) failed when a new phase emerged. All leadership styles have inherent weaknesses, and these can only be overcome by collaboration and an external guidance that focuses on the best interests of the group.
The Beatles wer fortunate to have two such mentor/guides in Brian Epstein and George Martin. Though the raw ability was present in the individuals, only the magic mix of rivalry, competition, collaboration and outside guidance enabled the individual musicians and songwriters to develop the potential into genius and produce works of genius.
It is easy to forget how young the Beatles were as they navigated the tumultuous years of their fame: they were only 24, 25 and 27 years of age when they recorded the Sgt. Peppers album in 1967. To expect them to lead themselves without conflict or error through the shoals of ambition and a treacherous music business while retaining their musical genius would be expecting far too much of any mortals.
Summary of the Blog This Past Week
The Financialized-Oil Dominoes Are Toppling 12/12/14
Central Banks' 2% Plan to Impoverish You 12/11/14
Central Banks Have Failed Because They Can't Push Wages Higher 12/10/14
Central Banks Create Deflation, Not Inflation 12/9/14
We've Habituated to a Rigged, Fraudulent Market 12/8/14
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Rain in Northern california--our first proper rainstorm in many years. Never mind that the 4 inches received with much ado in two days is but one good night's rain in Hilo--last year the Bay Area only had two inches of rainfall by late December; this year the total is already over 9 inches. Rain, rain, wonderful rain.
Market Musings: Is Oil Due for a Bounce?
Take a look at these charts of oil--the WTIC index and February Crude Oil. The $50 drop in 5 months is astonishing.
While much has been written about the supply and demand issues this decline raises, to a trader it looks like a very crowded trade suddenly unwinding in a get-out-now sellathon. This is what happens to crowded trades that are also highly leveraged.
So there may be two facets to this decline: a supply-demand imbalance and a purely financial unwinding of a heavily leveraged crowded trade, in which "everyone" was long oil and betting on $100/barrel oil as far as the eye can see.
While the supply-demand issues will take months to play out, the unwinding process looks like it's reached capitulation. When "everyone" is talking about $40/barrel oil being baked in, sentiment has reversed from bullish to bearish, and the contrarian expects a sharp retrace higher.
Whether a retrace is merely a dead-cat bounce (based on the truism that "nothing goes down in a straight line") or a normalization of supply and demand is unknown. But when sentiment reaches extremes, a move of some kind is to be expected.
I've drawn some potential targets for retrace levels: based on standard Fibonacci levels (38.2% and 62.8% of the $50 drop), a $19 rise to $76 is possible, and above that, a $31 pop back to $89. There is support/resistance at $60, $80 and $90 which might come into play.
I often look at put-call positions for clues to sentiment extremes. Right now, the put-call ratio in OIH, the oil services etf, is heavily skewed to bets on further declines--a few hundred calls vs. thousands of puts. The market rarely rewards the 80% on one side of the trade, further evidence that a bounce is likely, if for no other reason than to harvest money from overconfident oil Bears.
From Left Field
Low vitamin D linked to heart disease, death (via John D., MD) -- supplements don't replace the sun, but they're better than remaining deficient....
Fossil fuels: are we on the edge of the Seneca cliff? Worth a read to understand the coming crunch in oil....
A Scientist Found the sunken Egyptian city of Thonis-Heracleion...
Prove This Wrong: "It would be elegant if wind and solar energy capturing devices could actually maintain a modicum of the wonderfully rich lifestyles many of us live." -- Good analysis of the material/energy costs of alternative energy...
Americans are 40% poorer than before the recession -- median net worth masks the rise of the top 5%, those who own substantial stocks and bonds, and/or real estate in hot markets...
Anywhere But Here: Casino Capitalism in Las Vegas -- Rebecca Solnit, always worth a read, even if you disagree with her POV....
Brain Food: How to Eat Smart -- 3% of our body weight consumes 25% of our calories--and it only burns sugars/carbos
'A Universe Beneath Our Feet': Life In Beijing's Underground (via Maoxian) -- how'd you like to live in a damp windowless cubbyhole because that's all you can afford?
Why Beijing’s Troubles Could Get a Lot Worse: Bank rate cuts and anti-corruption campaign are unlikely to stave off woes, says Anne Stevenson-Yang. -- This got a lot of exposure because she's in a position to know the score on the ground....
Here's Why China's Stock Rally Will End in Tears -- gambling mentality and hot money moves from property to stocks....
Russia's Ruble Disaster in One Chart - any currency is a mirror of faith the issuing nation...
A global map of oil production says a lot about oil’s plunge
Surprisingly simple tips from 20 experts about how to lose weight and keep it off -- tracking, forming new habits, self-awareness....
"The question is not what you look at, but what you see." Henry David Thoreau
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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