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Musings Report #15 4-11-15 Future Shock and the Greening of America
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Future Shock and the Greening of America
During a recent breakfast meeting in Berkeley, author/blogger Jim Kunstler suggested that the coherence of eras waxed and waned, and the present era was incoherent.
By this he meant the narratives being propagated by the status quo no longer align with reality, and often conflict with one another, resulting in incoherence.
I suspect there is a time lag of many years between fast-changing events and our ability to make sense of them, i.e. construct a coherent account or narrative of what we collectively experienced.
Each era has its Big Events and trends, but the last era with truly ground-shifting changes that affected virtually everyone in the nation in one way or another was the 1960s. 9/11 increased airport security but other than that, the changes wrought by the Global War on Terror (GWOT) only heavily impact narrow slices of the state and populace--the armed forces and security agencies.
The same can be said of the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-09: the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) destroyed the yield on savings, but the general effects on most people have been modest; some have seen their portfolios skyrocket in value, but most households have seen their real net worth decline. Social welfare did its job of providing a safety net for those who lost their jobs in the recession.
The 1960s visibly changed society in a few short years, and less visibly, the economy.
Two books published in 1970, at the end of the tumultuous 1960s, attempted to weave a coherent narrative of what everyone was experiencing: Future Shock and The Greening of America.
Given that these books were embedded in the era, it's not surprising many of their points appear naively off the mark to present-day readers: Future Shock: what the Tofflers Got Right and Wrong.
Toffler's definition of future shock is a personal perception of "too much change in too short a period of time". I wrote about Future Shock and Douglas Rushkoff's Present Shock in 2013, and about Effort Shock and Future Shock in 2010.
What I find fascinating is our limited ability to make sense of trends unfolding in real time. The Greening of America, for example, posited three types of consciousness.
"Consciousness I" applies to the world-view of rural farmers and small businesspeople that arose and was dominant in 19th century America. "Consciousness II" represents a viewpoint of "an organizational society", featuring meritocracy and improvement through various large institutions; it dominated the New Deal, World War II and 1950s generations. "Consciousness III" represents the worldview of the 1960s counterculture, focusing on personal freedom, egalitarianism, and recreational drugs.
Would we agree that these rough categories make sense of our socio-economic world today? Society seems too fragmented to fit into only three categories; I outlined nine socio-economic classes and still felt I was generalizing.
If Future Shock and Present Shock have any predictive value, then we must conclude the speeding up of change is eroding our ability to make sense of present-day trends, as the velocity of change is outrunning our ability to construct coherent narratives.
But just as a parlor game, let's ask: are there three modern-day equivalents of consciousness 1, 2 and 3?
I propose these three basic categories:
1. Those who still believe the Status Quo narratives of meritocracy, a just central state, the market can solve everything and whatever it can't solve, the central state can, etc.
Those in this class are finding the gulf between their Master Narrative and reality is widening to the point of losing coherence.
2. Those who are losing faith in the Status Quo narrative but are resigned and passive.
Those in this class indulge in dystopian visions of the future, a world of zombies and warlords. This seems to serve as distraction and entertainment while also offering a rough-and-ready narrative that matches various sobering data points.
3. Those who have lost all faith in the Status Quo narrative but see its demise as enormously positive and a huge opportunity for the planet and individuals.
I am of course in this camp. The only way forward is through the shards of the wasteful, bloated, corrupt and terribly destabilizing Status Quo. As it fissures, more opportunities will appear for what is currently marginalized to become mainstream.
We can give up, or we can busy ourselves with widening the cracks and making best use of the oportunities that are arising from the systemic failure of the old arrangements.
Those who are energized by this--I call them "Mobile Creatives", but perhaps there is an even better name--are definitely in a class of their own. It's the class we should all aspire to join, because it's the only one with a future.
Summary of the Blog This Past Week
Today's Money Regimes Are Doomed To Failure 4/10/15
Rich Middle Class, Poor Middle Class 4/9/15
Neofeudalism 101: Strip-Mining the Upper Middle Class 4/8/15
What Happens to Sales and Employment When Corporate Profits Fall? 4/7/15
Guaranteed Financial Security Is a Fantasy 4/6/15
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Leisurely breakfast with Jim Kunstler during his recent trip to the San Francisco Bay Area.
Market Musings: Risk Has Vanished as Global Economy Slows
There are many things to look at when it comes to following markets and the economy, but the only one that has mattered for six years is what "free money for financiers" programs central bankers have instituted or talked up.
This has generated extremes of sentiment (measures of bearish sentiment are at all-time lows--there are no Bears left) and risk: measures of risk such as VXX are also touching all-time lows.
Can risk really have vanished even as the global economy slows? On the surface, stock markets in China, Hong Kong, Japan and Europe are hitting all-time highs, multi-year highs or multi-decade highs.
Meanwhile, negative-yield bonds are being snapped up--for the first time in recorded history, bond holders are paying banks to hold their cash for years. Is this "normal" or healthy?
I wasn't around in 1929 or 1907, but the gulf between euphoria in the markets and the stagnation of the real global economy is at an extreme. Some observers feel there is a blow-off top in the works, others feel we're closer to the top of the bubble than is generally recognized. Time will tell who's right.
From Left Field
Deliberate Practice and Performance in Music, Games, Sports, Education, and Professions: A Meta-Analysis -- a critique of the "10,000 hours of practice rule"...
National Policy: Supporting Conventional Plant Breeding Programs -- the forgotten way we once improved plant yields...
The Real Reason College Tuition Costs So Much -- when there's "free money" via student loans, that incentivizes admin bloat...
American Entrepreneurship Is Actually Vanishing. Here's Why -- not vanishing, but withering...
California Drought Tests History of Endless Growth -- if we factor in how much of the ag produce is exported elsewhere, it turns out it's the rest of the country/world that's using Cali's water...the 38 million people use 20% or less of the water...
2 out of 3 taxpayers pay more in payroll taxes than income taxes -- I'm one of the 2/3....
stray Russian dogs commute to 'work' by subway -- looks charming, but it generates 20,000 dog bites a year...
Where You Grow Up Makes a Huge Difference in Your Salary as an Adult -- Research Confirms What's Obvious Dept....
This Is What Happened When Maine Forced Welfare Recipients To Work For Their Benefits --80% leave the program once some modest work is required of them...
Artifacts lost in shipwreck 191 years ago returned to Hawaii
All Day Long: a Portrait of Britain at Work review – is our labour really working? -- from the U.K.
Airlander 10: up close with the gigantic airship the US Army wanted (via U. Doran)
"Everyone has been made for some particular work, and the desire for that work has been put in every heart." Rumi
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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