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Musings Report #22 5-29-15 Have You Been Lucky? How Lucky?
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For those who are new to the Musings reports: they are basically a glimpse into my notebook,the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.
Have You Been Lucky? How Lucky?
Correspondent Bart D. and I have been exchanging emails on the fascinating topic of luck, specifically on the question of whether good luck is abundant or scarce.
As a writer, my experience has been that the default setting for unknown writers is rejection, failure and a scarcity of good luck. Even for those of us who believe we make our own luck via perseverence, endless rejections can be daunting.
From Bart's perspective, good luck is abundant, and he used his own life as an example: born into a wealthy nation with opportunities, rather than into a 3rd world country with few opportunities: definitely good luck.
Childhood accidents that could have turned out very badly indeed (permanent disfigurement, etc.) did not turn out badly: definitely good luck.
Being born into a stable family with productive values: definitely good luck.
Being offered a job that opened up new worlds that few get to experience: definitely good luck.
Near-misses, accidents dodged: definitely good luck.
Having two healthy, smart, attractive children--definitely good luck.
I suspect most of can assemble a similar list of potential disasters dodged, more by sheer luck than by design, and various beneficial conditions that we were born into or gained as a matter of good fortune.
But we also have to remain aware of the times luck turns upside down: people are killed or maimed in accidents, contract rare cancers at an early age, and so on.
Then there's the story of David Choe, a graffiti artist who reaped $200 million when Facebook went public in 2012. I first heard about Choe's good fortune from my brother-in-law Fred R., whose former student had dated Choe in her undergraduate days.
In 2005, Choe had agreed to paint murals in Facebook's new headquarters in Palo Alto in exchange for either a few thousand dollars or an equivalent amount of Facebook shares. He chose the shares and wrote the whole thing off until 2012, when he discovered his artwork had earned him $200 million.
Here was Choe's response on his blog:
"Have you had the dream where you ARE this guy?!? And then some kind of happy accident happens, and as you're in the middle of this glorious car crash you stop to realize that there is actually no such thing as an accident, and no chance encounters, and that everything has a direct purpose? [...] then I get up and see my picture on the cover of the New York Times and I find out that I'm the most highest paid decorator alive."
Choe's experience sets a very high standard for good luck. Clearly, the number of graffiti artists who paint murals for tech startups who end up being worth $200 million is small. I think it is fair to say the total number of people who have experienced this sort of luck is very likely one: David Choe.
Bart and I also traded ideas on the impact of our perception of the abundance or scarcity of good luck on our future efforts and our inner well-being. Bart pointed out that if you feel good luck is scarce, and failure is the norm, you might surrender to self-pity, as those who are down-and-out are often tempted to do.
My perspective as a writer is different: understanding the long odds and scarcity of success/good luck has enabled me to persevere, as the many rejections and failures I experienced were understood as the norm, and therefore shouldn't be taken personally.
From my perspective, in this world of scarce success and good luck, even the most modest success deserves to be celebrated--for example, getting a byline, being published in the mainstream media, earning a few hundred bucks for a writing gig, and so on.
This discussion of luck offers a wealth of ideas on the power of good luck and subtle role it plays in shaping our perspectives, and on the relative impact of good and bad luck. Clearly, extremes of luck, good and bad, have great influence on the direction of our lives.
This is the basis of my initial question: have you been lucky? How lucky?
One of my key take-aways from this discussion is the close relationship of good luck and gratitude. We are often enjoined to be grateful, but that exercise can all too easily become rote. In pondering our good fortune, we find much to be grateful for that we generally take for granted.
A second take-away for me was the distinction between passive luck (being born healthy, etc.) and active luck, that is, opportunities that pop up for a brief period which we must act on. If we fail to act on the good luck, it vanishes from our lives.
A third take-away is the nature of the luck we say we create via effort and perseverance. I don't think we create randomness that magically benefits us, as much as we create tendrils of opportunity. The more tendrils we put out, the more likely it becomes that one will be touched by good luck.
Have you been lucky? How lucky? Perhaps the answers will surprise you, simply because we rarely ask ourselves these questions.
Summary of the Blog This Past Week
U.S. Households Under Pressure: Stagnant Incomes, Rising Basic Expenses 5/29/15
How Healthcare Is Dooming the U.S. Economy (Three Charts) 5/28/15
Buy This Blog for $10 Million Before It IPOs on the Shenzhen Exchange 5/27/15
Surplus Repression and the Self-Defeating Deep State 5/26/15
The Case for Nationalizing Monsanto 5/25/15
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Attended the graduation of our young friend Chaytanya from San Francisco State University, with a B.S. in biology. Rejected by her parents for her choice of husband, it has not been easy for Chay to fund her education and persevere through the emotional turmoil of being shunned. But she succeeded in reaching her goal, and we celebrated at The Front Porch in S.F. with her husband Kiran and her good friend Hung Lin.
Market Musings: Margin Debt Soars to New Extremes
Of the dozens of finance-economic articles I scanned this week, two struck me as noteworthy:
S&P 500 – Is it repeating the 2000 & 2007 topping pattern?
Robert Shiller: Unlike 1929 This Time Everything - Stocks, Bonds And Housing - Is Overvalued.
Courtesy of Dave P., here is a chart of margin debt, which has recently soared to a new high even as the SPX has struggled in a narrow range. More debt is being leveraged on stocks, but the market isn't moving appreciably higher. This suggests additional leverage and buying is no longer pushing stocks higher: a classic example of diminishing returns. That suggests a top rather than a launching pad for higher prices.
If we combine this evidence of diminishing return with the cyclical top possibility and Shiller's recognition that stocks, bonds and real estate are all over-valued by his metrics, the stage is set for either a meaningful decline (10+%) or going-nowhere chop that will likely be resolved by September-October, the traditional time frame for the resolution of a going-nowhere diminishing-return market.
From Left Field
Everything in the Music Industry Has Changed Except the Song Itself -- interesting discussion of streaming services and how the way they pay is influencing the structure of songs...
Miles Davis: a love affair with Paris -- and Paris's love affair with jazz...
Why can’t we read anymore? Or, can books save us from what digital does to our brains?
The Man Who Changed the Face of Shanghai -- builder of the Peace Hotel...
The Salt Mind -- interesting observations on the nature of work by a fellow who took a conventional job after years of self-employment...
HSBC fears world recession with no lifeboats left -- reality seeping into the mainstream?
It will take 100 years for the world’s poorest people to earn $1.25 a day -- our models of global development are broken...
A Plea for Culinary Modernism: The obsession with eating natural and artisanal is ahistorical. We should demand more high-quality industrial food
Salt Sugar Fat: How the Food Giants Hooked Us (book, via B.C.)
Iraq exists only as an idea, not a nation -- we knew this, but proceeded anyway...
How Third-Century China Saw Rome, a Land Ruled by “Minor Kings”
8 striking parallels between the U.S. and the Roman Empire -- only eight?
"Emotion resulting from a work of art is only of value when it is not obtained by sentimental blackmail." Jean Cocteau
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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