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Musings Report #24 6-13-15 The Rise of Robotic Killing Machines
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For those who are new to the Musings reports: they are basically a glimpse into my notebook,the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.
The Rise of Robotic Killing Machines
It sounds like science fiction, doesn't it: robotic killing machines. Yet it's very clear how close we've already come to independently programmed killer drones. Present drone strikes that kill people are remotely controlled by human pilots, and the assassinations are guided by the civilian chain of command. (Hence President Obama's alleged comment that he was surprised to find he's good at choosing drone strikes.)
Given the advances in optical recognition, it is now a very small leap from a remote-piloted drone to an autonomously programmed drone with the ability to independently launch "fire and forget" missiles at a target once that target meets the specified parameters.
A recent article describes the current state of the technology and of the many moral/ethical questions it raises: Future War: the rise of artificially intelligent killing machines:
"They’re called lethal autonomous weapons, or LAWs, and their military mission would be to seek out, identify and kill a human target independent of human control. Human decision would not be in the loop, and the only button a military commander would push would be the “on” button. In military terms, it’s called “fire and forget.”
None of the industrial nations admits having a LAW, but there’s really no way to confirm the nonexistence of a weapon that would be classified as secret. If they don’t exist, they are barely a breath away. The U.S. Department of Defense has had a directive in place for three years that outlines the chain of command that would approve their deployment on a case-by-case basis. It’s called Directive 3000.09."
Russell, who has authored numerous technical books on artificial intelligence, predicts few limitations in developing a brain for LAWs. Already, a robot’s ability to recognize human faces and gaits exceeds a person’s ability, and recognizing objects is equal to human ability in 1,000 categories.
A small aerial bot weighing 5 grams would face physical restrictions, but, he said, even smaller devices in the 1-gram range might be able to selectively kill a chosen human target on contact using a shaped explosive charge. “I’m not sure what countermeasures one might try against a swarm of 5-gram robots."
The moral dilemma created by LAWs (an ironic acronym if there ever was one) is this: by removing soldiers from the battlefield (and let's include sailors, because LAW-mini-subs could take on the dangerous roles of attacking enemy submarines), we spare the lives of our service personnel.
But by removing our citizens from the danger of war, we make remotely executed war much easier to launch and conduct. The U.S. has already shifted some of the risks onto mercenaries, who are well-paid to take the risks (and keep quiet about the war they're being paid to conduct). But it would be much better from a policy view to eliminate humans from the battlefield altogether.
The lowering of the threshold to war disturbs anyone who sees the potential for politically expedient permanent conflict--much like the war in Afghanistan that shifts between U.S. units, remote drone killings, local army units, militias and mercenaries. It is unlikely that war can be fully automated, but it's already inevitable that drones will be able to not just release a fire-and-forget missile, but unleash a swarm of dragon-fly-sized killer drones.
Even better from the point of view of disabling an enemy, the dragon-fly drone could inject a communicable virus or bateria that the infected combatant would then carry back to the base to infect his fellows. The burdens of caring for those debilitated by a fast-spreading virus would be heavier on an enemy force than combat deaths.
If the disease were not deadly, such a bio-weapon could be presented as a humane way of disabling an enemy force. As for the inevitable collateral damage of non-combatants catching the disease--these unintended infections would not result in death.
It's easy to see an escalating arms race in robotics and AI-guided drones, as counter-measures to cheap robots and drones will be developed (for example, targeted electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons that fry the electronic brains of all drones in a specific airspace).
Drones offer asymmetric advantages not just to superpowers but to irregular forces bent on delivering destruction from afar. Why rely on suicide bombers once a weaponized drone becomes available?
It would be great if we could stuff this technology back in the bottle before the genie escaped, but bioengineered-weapons, drones, robots and AI are all long out of the bottle, and those tasked with defending the nation against these fast-changing technologies and executing the wars ordered by our civilian leadership will have their hands full trying to stay one step ahead of the fast-multiplying dangers created by these technologies.
Summary of the Blog This Past Week
The Fed Is Funneling the Investing Herd Off a Cliff 6/12/15
Junk Fees and Debt: The Funding Template for American Cities 6/11/15
If Your BS Detector Isn't Shrieking, It's Broken 6/9/15
The Cost of China's Industrialization 6/8/15
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
We went camping in Hendy State Park (Mendocino County, California), one of the few stands of old-growth redwoods that are easily accessible to campers. Even better, the campground was practically deserted mid-week--the best scenario for those of us who want to leave blaring radios and TVs behind, not bring them with us.
Market Musings: Commodities
Here's the key dynamic in global commodities: all the cheap credit issued by central banks made it easy to expand capacity and production as a way of reaping higher profits. But capacity (supply) has now far outstripped demand for most commodities, and so producers of everything from coffee to oil have lost pricing power.
Since much of this capacity was expanded with debt, producers have to keep producing, even at a loss, to generate the cash flow needed to make interest payments.
This dynamic is highly deflationary, as commodities keep falling in price. Ironically, marginal producers don't go bankrupt and withdraw their production; they simply roll their debt into larger loans. This is China's blueprint for avoiding a downturn. The problem is there are not enough buyers for the steel, copper, cement, oil, etc. being produced.
We can see how this deflationary pressure crushed the CRB comodities index, and how the CRB has traced out the inevitable retrace/rebound (the B leg that follows the initial A leg).
The question now is: will the CRB/commodity complex continue rising to its 50-week moving average, and then move back to its previous highs, or will it falter within the expanding wedge shown on the chart, and collapse below 200?
While MACD is rising constructively, it is still far below the neutral line. It will take a major breakout above the expanding wedge to eliminate the possibility that the next move will be a breakdown to new lows as the trends of oversupply and weakening demand gather momentum.
From Left Field
The tyranny of the friendless -- insightful essay on institutional failure...
Algorithms of the Mind: What Machine Learning Teaches Us About Ourselves
The Other Aging of America: The Increasing Dominance of Older Firms -- same problem in Japan and Europe...
How a Graduate Student Reluctantly Uncovered a Huge Scientific Fraud -- interesting long read--guy was constantly told "don't make waves" by investigating bogus, misleading research...
To Hell and Back in the Chinese Healthcare System -- man has to saw off his own leg to save his life...no cash, no care...
China's Pollution Crisis: Nearly Two-Thirds Of Underground Water Is Graded Unfit For Human Contact, Report Says (via John D.)
Evgeny Morozov on digital addiction -- in an advert-driven revenue model, addiction is profitable...
As Global Population Grows, Is The Earth Reaching The 'End Of Plenty'? -- or, have we finally run out of cheap magic?
Erba Cycles raises grass-fed steers-- bamboo-frame bikes...
I Quit My Job Today -- moral of the story--have a spouse with high earnings...
How the Red Cross Raised Half a Billion Dollars for Haiti and Built Six Homes --typical NGO development story....
The innovators: the Bristol pound is giving sterling a run for its money (via John D.)
"I have great faith in fools; self-confidence my friends call it." Edgar Allan Poe
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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