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Musings Report #46 11-14-15 The Context of Islamic Terrorism
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For those who are new to the Musings reports: they are basically a glimpse into my notebook, the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.
The Context of Islamic Terrorism
The deadly terror attacks in Paris were not abtractions to me, as many of the shootings occurred in the 11th Arrondissement, very close to where we rented a flat during our last visit to Paris. In a slightly different time and place, it could have been me laid out on the sidewalk covered by a sheet. Many of our extended family (my sister-in-law's family) live in Paris, and we were relieved to hear everyone was safe.
The conventional context for these terror attacks is the role the West has played in Syria's ongoing nightmare, a situation that is also not an abstraction to me, as our Syrian friend (who's uncle served in the U.S. Army for many years in Iraq) has reported to us that though Assad is nominally still in charge, that nation has been torn beyond repair, at least in terms of its social fabric.
Let's approach the context from a different perspective and ask: how many young men in the Mideast would be attracted to violent terrorist movements if opportunities for employment, marriage and positive social roles were abundant in their home countries?
While it's easy to blame the West for the extraordinary failure of Mideast nations to provide opportunities to their burgeoning populations of young people, the meddling of the West is not sufficient to explain the many decades of squandered opportunities.
The region is dominated by corrupt, self-serving monarchies, strongmen or dictators, whose first order of business is eliminating all sources of political resistance.
This obsession with eliminating potential rivals and dissenters has effectively gutted the civial societies of these nations.
Once civil society has been shredded, power rests in the hands of the few, and as the seminal book Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook (1968) describes, this consolidation of power int he hands of a tiny Elite makes these nations exquisitely vulnerable to coups and regime change.
This vulnerability made them tempting targets to Great Powers and those seeking to become regional powers.
Nations with diverse civil societies and a tolerance for dissent and multiple circles of power cannot be overthrown by coups, as power is too diversified to be grabbed by a tiny clique or the agents of a foreign power.
So by stripping their social orders of dissent and diverse circles of power, the dictators and monarchs have created a vulnerability to external meddling that would not have otherwise existed.
Those nations with oil wealth have reaped the sorry harvest of "The Oil Curse," the fatal tendency of corrupt elites to rely on oil wealth to fund their cronies and enough social welfare to keep the restive masses compliant.
Meanwhile, the rest of the economy stagnates and withers, leaving the nation highly vulnerable to any decline in oil revenues--from either a decline in production or in the price of oil, or both.
These two conditions have left the non-Elite populations in the Mideast Islamic world with few opportunities for steady employment, which is the cornerstone of positive social roles and marriage.
While it's easy to blame America's support of dictatorships for the impoverished breeding ground for violent movements, that ignores the destruction of civil society by local elites to secure their power.
Ironically, once elites lose their grip and the nation fragments, it becomes much more difficult to impose one's will. Ultimately, this is the reason why the U.S. withdrew from direct "nation-building"--it's much easier to topple or prop up a dictator than it is to rebuild a civil society and economy destroyed by repression and corrupt elites milking their nation's oil.
Summary of the Blog This Past Week
The Class War Has Already Started 11/14/15
If We Don't Change the Way Money Is Created and Distributed, Rising Inequality Will Trigger Social Disorder 11/13/15
We Need a Social Economy, Not a Hyper-Financialized Plantation Economy 11/12/15
"Super-Welfare" Guaranteed Income For All Isn't a Solution--It's Just the New Serfdom 11/11/15
Why I Will Never Hire Anyone, Even at $1/Hour
(Destroying the "Technology Always Creates More Jobs Than It Destroys" Meme) 11/10/15
Automation Doesn't Just Destroy Jobs--It Destroys Profits, Too 11/9/15
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
My new book garnered five positive reviews on amazon.com. Thank you, readers!
Market Musings: Bounce or More Downside?
There are two forces battling in the coming week: technically, the put-call ratio (CPC) and the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) have both reached levels that in the past have triggered strong rallies.
On the other hand, the weekly chart of the S&P 500 is looking bearish, as the stochastic indicator just crossed bearishly, and the MACD has rolled over and is poised to cross in a sell signal as well.
Which one will win? Given a global economy piled high with bad news and the shockwaves of the terror attacks in Paris, it's difficult to see much support for a rally.
Perhaps the markets will manage a dead-cat bounce into the end of options expiration week (OEX) and then resume their slide? The weekly SPX chart is not something it pays to ignore in terms of identifying the operative trend.
Just based on this chart, the operative trend is down, despite the odds of a brief rally to relieve oversold conditions.
From Left Field
Umberto Eco: ‘Real literature is about losers’
How Uber’s Autonomous Cars Will Destroy 10 Million Jobs and Reshape the Economy by 2025 (via Cheryl A.)
Eighty million U.S. jobs at risk from automation, central bank official says
The Next Tech Hot Spot: Rural America -- low cost of doing biz and housing...
Buying the Farm (via Joel M.) -- cheap credit lines for financiers means farmland is being snapped up by Wall Street...
Dear Striking Fast-Food Workers: Meet The Machine That Just Put You Out Of A Job -- or at least staff reductions,,,
Despair, American Style -- it's not just income that's missing--it's positive social roles and identity...
In 5 Minutes, He Lets the Blind See (via Joel M.)
What We Know About the 92 Million Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force -- many are retired...
Chinese Buyers Seek Dollar Assets as Promise of Yuan Gains Fades -- if the yuan was going to dominate the world, why would those in the know dump yuan for USD?
What Killed Dinosaurs: New Ideas About the Wipeout -- acidification, volcanos and then the meteor strike as coup de grace...
All Space Colonies Will Begin as Dictatorships -- democracy a luxury
"Ignorance is the softest pillow on which a man can rest his head." Michel de Montaigne
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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