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Musings Report #16 4-16-16 The Illusion of Knowledge
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For those who are new to the Musings reports: they are basically a glimpse into my notebook, the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.
The Illusion of Knowledge
Donald Rumsfeld famously differentiated the known knowns, the known unknowns, and the unknown unknowns: what we know, what we know we don't know, and what we don't know we don't know.
This last includes the illusion of knowledge: what we think we know, but our knowledge is fatally incomplete or partial.
In some cases, this is the result of hubris: our belief that we know a field well, when in fact our knowledge lacks critical elements.
It also includes intentional blind spots, what's known as information asymmetry, as when market players purposefully hide information from other players to retain the enormous advantage of this closely-held knowledge.
I recently got a lesson in the hubris version: having replaced toilets and toilet tank innards (the float mechanism, the overflow assembly, etc.) over the years, I thought I knew pretty much all I needed to know about fixing a running toilet, i.e. a toilet in which water is slowly leaking from the tank into the bowl, causing the tank to refill every few hours.
Sometimes the problem is as simple as the chain connecting the handle to the flapper is too long, and the extra chain blocks the flapper from closing completely.
It was wasn't that easy this time, and we replaced the overflow assembly and the flapper, which come as a complete kit.
Repeated replacements and tightening the ring under the tank failed to stop the leak. Flummoxed, we added dye to the tank water and watched for the leak. Nothing happened for five minutes, and I foolishly reckoned the leak had finally been fixed.
But then a curl of blue-dyed water emerged from the hole in the bottom of the bowl, and it finally dawned on me, with the terrible awareness of hubris, that I didn't know something important about the apparently simple mechanics of the toilet: if a gasket or the flapper were leaking, the dyed water would have been visible in a matter of seconds. What could possibly cause the leak to start five minutes after the tank had been filled?
The difficulty in confessing ignorance is highly correlated to the length of time you've been in a field: the longer our experience, the more resistant we are to admitting fatal ignorance. This is the illusion of knowledge: we think we know everything important, but we don't, and our confidence blinds us to what's missing: the unknown unknowns.
So I turned to the Internet and Googled the problem. Within a few moments I'd located the problem and the solution: the thin black fill hose from the float assembly must be positioned so the water flows into the overflow tube, but it should not be shoved down the tube, as this causes water to siphon out of the tank into the bowl.
As everyone who's siphoned gasoline out of a tank knows, if the end of the hose is lower than the tank, the liquid flows out of the tank once a bit of suction is created in the hose.
In a toilet, if the fill hose is pushed far enough down the overflow tube, a siphon is created.
I was vaguely aware of the instructions to clip the fill hose to the top of the overflow assembly, but ignorant of why. So I ignored this instruction.
This illustrates the importance of not just following instructions (source of the famous acronym of advice to newbies in tech, RTFM, "read the f****** manual") but of understanding why each step is essential.
A machine can be programmed to follow assembly instructions, but it can't understand the whys. To solve problems, following instructions often isn't enough--we have to understand the mechanics of the situation, be it in the real world or in the conceptual arena.
Our problem-solving is crippled by the illusion of knowledge--the unknown unknowns. Hubris is one danger, information asymmetry is another.
Summary of the Blog This Past Week
What Is the Minimum Investment Needed to Achieve Social Mobility? 4/16/16
The Entire Status Quo Is a Fraud 4/14/16
Why Aren't We Talking About a Four-Candidate Race for the Presidency: Two Party Hacks and Trump and Sanders as Independents? 4/13/16
The Root of Rising Inequality: Our "Lawnmower" Economy (hint: we're the lawn) 4/12/16
Japan Desperately Needs a Stronger Dollar, China Desperately Wants a Weaker Dollar: The Fed Can't Please Both 4/11/16
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Finished my federal and state taxes--always a great relief, as our two businesses require a lot of accounting (we use Excel for accounts, TurboTax for the tax prep). I am envious of those who file simplified 1040s in 5 minutes....
Market Musings: A Look at Oil
The markets are bifurcating into sharply delineated Bulls and Bears. In the oil market, Bulls are declaring the $26/barrel low as "the bottom," while Bears are declaring the current rally a dead-cat surge that will fade and the lows will be revisited as the global economy slows.
Bulls expect U.S. production to falter while demand continues rising--a combination that would push prices higher.
The chart reflects the uncertainty: it has some bullish features and bearish points of resistance:
Price has tagged the 50-week MA (resistance) and the upper Bollinger; is this a true breakout or a false breakout? Only time will tell.
Many have noted that oil and the broader stock market have surged in lockstep since the February lows. It's worth noting that if these two had truly been correlated since 2014, then stocks would be 60% lower.
In other words, color me skeptical that this correlation helps us peer into the future.
From Left Field
Total Inequality: Researchers know that it’s expensive to be poor. But they are only beginning to understand the sum of the financial, psychological, and cultural disadvantages that come with poverty.-- advantages and disadvantages are path-dependent-they pile up.
How to Hack an Election - power of media...
Dismantling neoliberal education: a lesson from the Zapatistas
The London Royals: Working as a delivery driver showed me who London belongs to: the elite.A useful class distinction today might be between those who have worked in the service industry and those who have not. -- physical separation of classes is still important...
Why does no one care when boys fail at school and middle-aged men kill themselves?
Instagram and the Cult of the Attention Web: How the Free Internet is Eating Itself -- worth a read: everything is competing for your time....
I forgot my phone (2:10) 50 Million views of this video depicting a day without a mobile phone addiction...
Rich U.S. Schools Defend Tax-Free Status, Spending of Endowments -- cartel defending its primary perquisite....
Congratulations! You’ve Been Fired -- the New Normal: labor flexibility....
The Drugs That Built a Super Soldier: During the Vietnam War, the U.S. military plied its servicemen with speed, steroids, and painkillers to help them handle extended combat. -- I never realized the extent of the authorized drugs...
The World’s Favorite New Tax Haven Is the United States: Moving money out of the usual offshore secrecy havens and into the U.S. is a brisk new business. -- don't read this if you have high blood pressure-- wealthy Americans have no need for Panama tax evasion scams....
The Voyeur's Motel -- very long account of a dedicated voyeur...file in the "insight into human nature" folder....
The hidden price Steph Curry pays for making the impossible seem effortless -- skinny 6-foot 3-inch kid becomes best player on the planet, but not without costs....
"You see things and you say why? But I dream things that never were and I say why not?" George Bernard Shaw
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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