Musings Report #40 10-01-16 Are There Multiple Internets in our Future?
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Are There Multiple Internets in our Future?
Many observers are concerned that the transfer of the world wide web registration organization ICANN from the US to the UN will unleash repression of free speech as autocratic governments may cripple ICANN to protect their regimes.
My initial reaction is that repressive regimes don't need ICANN to control the web; China's Great Firewall blocks entire channels such as YouTube and Facebook, and hundreds of thousands of people are employed by China to block thousands of sites the state views as threatening.
I think the larger question is: when will the current insecure web be upgraded, and by whom?
As I have noted before, the software "plumbing" of the web (protocols such as TCP/IP, FTP, etc.) and the "ports" in the operating systems that connect devices to the web were all designed at a time when the web was a few dozen nodes and security was not an issue.
The infrastructure was not designed to be secure because the security flaws and global size were not anticipated.
A great many knowledgeable people see the need for a new web that is more secure. the question is, who will build it?
There are several possibilities. Nations that want to control everything on the web in their borders (for example, China) may decide to fund their own version of the web and force their citizens to use it.
Another possibility is for commercial giants that rely on secure pipelines and transactions for their customers--Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Apple, Intel, Oracle, Twitter, etc.--to join forces to build a new secure software "plumbing" system.
Google has already shown that it has the money and will to construct global systems and make them free--for example, Google maps and the Android operating system.
These tech giants need a secure web to make money, and they may view the expense of a new secure web as another cost of doing business.
Other firms may view a secure web as a marketable service that ISPs (Internet service providers) and/or consumers will have to pay for. If the fee was modest, we could see the developed world migrate to the fee-based secure web and leave the insecure "wild west" web to the developing world.
Yet another possibility is "white hat" (good-guy) hackers open-source/crowd-source a new secure web in the same way Linux was derived from UNIX by Linus Torvalds and then brought to commercial fruition by an open-source community of programmers and developers.
This version of the web would optimize secure privacy above all else, much like bitcoin optimizes security and privacy. (The hacks into BTC exchanges were not hacks into the BTC blockchain; the exchanges had lax security.)
We may be moving into a multi-web world, and it might not be a bad thing.
Summary of the Blog This Past Week
How Do We Create Value When Knowledge Is Almost Free? 10/1/16
New Poll Puts Mayor of Cormorant, Minnesota Ahead of Hillary and Trump 9/30/16
You Want to Fix the Economy? Then First Fix Healthcare 9/29/16
Are The 'Invisible Americans' the Key Players in This Election? 9/28/16
Trump, Trade and Taxes 9/27/16
Why the Deep State Is Dumping Hillary 9/26/16
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Completed the recommendation for a young friend's application to the Peace Corps.
Market Musings: Is the Dollar Set to Benefit from Global Recession?
A great many people have expected the US dollar to decline in the past few years, and many expect the USD to crash for one reason or another.
The dollar bears have been wrong, and I suspect they will continue to be wrong.
As I have patiently explained many times, the Chinese RMB/yuan cannot become a global reserve currency without fulfilling two conditions:
1. It must float freely on the global FX market
2. China must run a permanent, large trade deficit to export sufficient quantities of RMB for others to use.
Neither of these are possible, as China needs to control the RMB peg and run a trade surplus.
Which trading blocs/nations are most vulnerable to a banking/currency crisis or deep recession? I would say the EU, Japan and China are all at greater risk of a meltdown than the U.S.
If other major currencies take a dive, the USD will rise.
These charts (weekly and daily) suggest a big move that has been building for 2 years is about to happen: either these other currencies strengthen a lot (and why would they?) and the USD tanks, or the USD makes a big move higher as its global competitors drop.
It looks like we won't have to wait much longer to find out which way the USD will go.
From Left Field
The More Cash People Have, the Happier They Are
Happiness may not be about how much overall wealth you have, but how much cash you have on hand
How the Beach Boys Made Their No. 1 Hit ‘Good Vibrations’ -- 50 years ago...
When Young Men Don’t Work: Immigrants replace them in the labor force; leisure replaces work in their lives.
Solar Rooftop Revolution Fizzles in U.S. on Utility Pushback
Hipsters and artists are the gentrifying foot soldiers of capitalism
Indians are rioting over water. Is this a glimpse into the future?
In Places With Fraying Social Fabric, a Political Backlash Rises -- isn't this obvious?
Why Interest Rates Are Rising and Where We Go From Here
China facing full-blown banking crisis, world's top financial watchdog warns -- China bulls and the Chinese don't see it coming, they are confident everything's going as planned...
Our New War Machines -- robots...
UN fears third leg of the global financial crisis - with prospect of epic debt defaults -- crisis is already baked in, only question is when/where does the first domino fall...
Science’s 1%: How income inequality is getting worse in research: Wages for top scientists are shooting skywards while others are being left behind.
It’s ‘digital heroin’: How screens turn kids into psychotic junkies -- yup...
“Where you find the laws most numerous, there you will find also the greatest injustice.” Arcesilaus (315-241 BC)
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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