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Musings Report #43 10-22-16 Do You have Enough Food, Water and Energy to Get Through an Emergency?
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For those who are new to the Musings reports: they are basically a glimpse into my notebook, the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.
Do You have Enough Food, Water and Energy to Get Through an Emergency?
Last week's Musings Report from Bart D. on the consequences of a 3-day blackout raises the question: Do You have Enough Food, Water and Energy to Get Through an Emergency?
Bart submitted an Excel spreadsheet as a tool to estimate calories and weights of simple dry foods needed for four people. The spreadsheet is dynamic, meaning you can change the items and quantities. http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct16/Food-Reserve-Calculator.xlsx
Here are Bart's comments:
"I made this simple tool to help me better plan my strategic food reserve. I think it wise to have such a reserve in my country now because I can see a scenario arising where Oz gets its trade links crimped off in Asia. Oz imports 91% of its petroleum and most of it comes in via Asia. As soon as fuel supply is crimped the logistics system of our economy will go dormant until alternative supply arrangements can be secured. Based on my recent experience … hardship will be inevitable for any family that has not already secured itself a buffer of reserves. Initially my ‘strategic reserve’ thinking was focused on mostly having a private fuel reserve … but now, after my blackout experience I see a broader scope is prudent.
Defence White Paper 2016: Dependency on fuel imports 'a risk' amid South China Sea tensions
I made this calculator so I could assess what I should have on hand to bridge a 90 day ‘human fuel’ gap resulting from ‘economic dormancy’. It can be adapted to add in different kinds of food in different dietary combinations and having different daily kilojoule intake targets. (It’s all metric). It’s all about the energy … not the complete nutrition. I don’t have to worry about vitamins and fibre thanks to my garden … but others in cities should consider it. The yellow shaded cells are ones where a user can plug in their own targets and food energy information. The rest calculates automatically as you change the yellow shaded variables.
Having done the math using this tool I realised I needed to expand parts of my ‘human energy’ reserve by about 30% just to secure a 30 day buffer for my family of 4. There’s some extra capacity in rice and sugar to trade out or gift to others if needed. I’ve decided a 90 day reserve is too pessimistic and wasteful as we can’t cycle through the stockpile quickly enough to keep it fresh.
Total investment in my human energy reserve is about $300 (includes fish sauce, tomato paste, chicken stock cubes and spices). Then there’s another $150 in D cell batteries, spare torch/camping light globes and a few other useful items which are all made in China and which we won’t be making here any time soon. That’s damn affordable insurance … and you get to eat the premium anyway as you cycle your usual rice/lentil/pasta usage through the reserve to keep everything fresh.
The tool might be useful for others... or if not the tool itself... the concept of a mathematical approach in laying up supplies in order to make sure you actually have what you might need for the length of time you might be without it."
It is a powerful idea to actually quantify what your household might need to weather a 3-day outage and perhaps as long as a week or two. (Bart is setting aside enough to last a few months.)
I would add the obvious need for water and energy--dried firewood, propane, petrol/gasoline, batteries for flashlights/ torches, etc.--and some sanitation planning, in the event the water supply is also disrupted (for example, in an earthquake).
As I scan our own food in storage, I am confident we have enough grains, legumes and proteins on hand to eat well in the event of a total power outage, as we also have two 5-gallon propane tanks and a stand-alone tripod burner for a wok or saucepan/pot.
We keep some water in 1-gallon containers, but we're lacking a water filter and should probably have a larger storage container for water.
We have several big batteries to power computers or recharge laptops, and a good supply of D batteries for flashlights as well as some candles and a camping lantern that uses propane canisters.
As avid campers, we are kitted out to be off the grid with modest discomfort.
Based on the experiences described by Facebook readers and Bart's account, obtaining a way to heat large amounts of water would be a major plus. A wood stove and a supply of wood would certainly come in handy, especially if the power outage continued past a few days.
The exercise of quantifying and planning for power/water outages is well worth the modest effort. Many of the conveniences of modern life are more fragile than they appear to those of us not actively engaged in keeping the long supply chains functioning.
Summary of the Blog This Past Week
Welcome to Neocolonialism, Exploited Peasants! 10/21/16
The Ruling Elite Has Lost the Consent of the Governed 10/20/16
What Happens When the Electricity Is Off for Three Days? 10/19/16
What Triggers Collapse? 10/18/16
QE/ZIRP Is Crushing the Global Supply Chain, Product Quality and Profits 10/17/16
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
The Spanish language edition of "A Radically Beneficial World" is now available on Kindle as an ebook: Un mundo radicalmente prospero
Market Musings: The Gathering Storm
No chart this week, just my sense that the storm clouds are gathering for both the stock and bond markets. Whether the storm will break this year, or Q1 2017 or 2Q 2017, I don't know, but the air is heavy in ways that presage a major move down, be it a crash or an unstoppable erosion.
In 2008-09, all the major central banks acted in unison to lower interest rates and flood the world with credit/liquidity. Now the unified front of central bank policies has frayed, as central banks must prioritize their domestic economies.
That is placing the central banks at odds with each other, as what benefits China and the EU may not benefit the US, and vice versa. For example, the strengthening US dollar is anathema to China, for the reasons I have often noted: since the RMB is pegged to the USD, as the dollar rises, so does the RMB, making China less competitive.
While the Fed dithers about a rate increase that should have been instituted in 2014, the ECB is effectively admitting that its QE (bond buying) has not accomplished the hoped-for goal of renewed growth in the Eurozone.
Brexit is heightening tensions between the UK and ECB, and by proxy, between the Fed and the ECB. Japn's failure to crush its own currency is creating another set of tensions.
The end of central bank unified action means the next global downturn/crisis will not be solved by central banks flooding the world with cheap credit. Rather, fault lines that are already visible will fracture, pushing volatility and uncertainty higher right when markets will be seeking reassurances of endless QE.
The goal is to protect one's assets from potential losses by focusing on risk management and hedges.
This is not a repeat of 2000 or 2008; every downturn/recession is different from the previous downturn. In the previous recessions, extreme, coordinated monetary policies saved the markets. That isn't going to happen this time around.
From Left Field
Basic income after automation? That’s not how capitalism works (via Steven W.)
Fed risks repeating Lehman blunder as US recession storm gathers -- but doing nothing will be a blunder, too...
How Plutocratic Forces Have Crippled Democracy, And Why It's Up to Us to Fight Back
Self-sufficient Scottish island for sale: completely off the grid, Tanera Mor comes with 24-hour electricity, broadband and even a post office
‘The Corruption of Capitalism’: The book acts as a call to rein in the unfettered forces of finance
Brad Friedman: Why To Be Suspicious Of Every Election -- rigging is easier than expected...
Adam Curtis: another manager of perceptions (among many MSM players)
Residents Who Fled Fukushima Meltdown Fear Return to Ghost Town (via Joel M.)
Tech Boom Downside: Not Enough Jobs? ... as i've been saying....
What Is Privilege? (3:59) ... interesting demo of subtle advantages...
Abe orders study of specific steps to curb medical spending (via George B.)
AN ECONOMY FOR THE 1%: The global inequality crisis is reaching new extremes. The richest 1% now have more wealth than the rest of the world combined. Power and privilege is being used to skew the economic system to increase the gap between the richest and the rest. (Oxfam)
"We see many who are struggling against adversity who are happy, and more although abounding in wealth, who are wretched." Tacitus
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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