Don't Be Too Sure

January 24, 2020

Don't be too sure that the coronavirus will blow over and have no effect on global growth.

If there is anything that characterizes this moment in history, it's complacency: everyone's so sure that current trend lines will continue, onward and upward, and risk has been tamed for the foreseeable future.

Don't be too sure.

1. Don't be too sure that the coronavirus will blow over and have no effect on global growth.

2. Don't be too sure that "the Fed has our back" so stocks will always resume their steady climb after every spot of bother.

3. Don't be too sure that the official Chinese pronouncements that the coronavirus is contained are actually accurate.

4. Don't be too sure that there won't be a second and far more lethal advance of the coronavirus once all the overseas Chinese who went home for Lunar New Year return to their jobs in the U.S., Europe, Southeast Asia, etc.

5. Don't be too sure that people will respond to the natural fears of the coronavirus by rushing out to buy a new iPhone, vehicle, etc.

6. Don't be too sure that bubbles in over-valued stocks and housing won't pop.

7. Don't be too sure that global tourism won't take a body-blow from the spread of the coronavirus.

8. Don't be too sure that the risks of the coronavirus spreading can be assessed by anyone with any accuracy.

9. Don't be too sure that the U.S. economy is bullet-proof and so President Trump is a shoo-in for re-election in November 2020.

10. Don't be too sure that the citizenry's tolerance for Fed-driven wealth-income inequality is as limitless as the Fed's balance sheet.

11. Don't be too sure that the super-low unemployment rate is a reliable measure of business confidence or the health of millions of small businesses.

12. Don't be too sure that the Fed's vaunted "wealth effect" won't reverse.

13. Don't be too sure that all risks are known and have been discounted.

14. Don't be too sure that the global health system is capable of dealing with the spread of the coronavirus.

15. Don't be too sure that central banks' lowering interest rates is going to reverse a global recession.

16. Don't be too sure your favored tech stock won't crater as over-valuation mania is replaced by fear.

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Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World ($13)
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Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 (Kindle), $12 (print), $13.08 ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).


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