How the Empire Might Strike Back
(March 5, 2014)
All those focusing on the West's lack of leverage are forgetting that the Empire retains multiple way of striking back. Many observers have focused on the relative paucity of the West's diplomatic and military options in Ukraine. Others focus on Russia's sources of leverage: cutting off natural gas to western Ukraine and Europe and/or dumping its reserves of U.S. dollars: Putin Adviser Urges Dumping US Bonds In Reaction to Sanctions. That applying such leverage could backfire on Russia receives less coverage. Does anyone doubt the Federal Reserve's ability to print $200 billion to buy the entire Russian holdings of Treasuries? What's another $200 billion on top of $4 trillion? Recall that Russia holds those Treasuries/U.S. dollars as reserves for its own benefit. Dumping the dollars simply creates the need for an immediate replacement, especially as the ruble craters. All those focusing on the West's lack of leverage are forgetting that the Empire retains multiple way of striking back. For example, bringing the costs of misadventure home to Russia's politically influential 1/10th of 1%. A knowledgeable correspondent submitted these observations:
1. After Edward Snowden the entire "intelligence community" is looking for major payback. Here is a heavy weight added to Ukraine's side of the scales. This is leading edge satellite and electronic intelligence, plus a detailed order of battle on actual Russian forces available and their locations. NATO can also provide access to advanced command and control facilities and advanced battle planning cells. In addition to numbers and morale the Ukraine will be able to mass their forces at the right spots and ignore unthreatened areas. Thank you, A.C. Discussions of modern warfare often revolve around asymmetric warfare in which the side with few conventional assets is able to leverage unconventional assets against a conventionally superior force. There are all sorts of asymmetric advantages that can be pressed home, and those targeting the wealthy will not be mentioned in speeches. This is not to suggest this kind of asymmetric leverage is being applied or will be applied or should be applied; I am simply pointing out that it could be applied, and with very little fanfare or effort. Others have referenced the same capabilities: U.S. has options for Russia’s declaration of war on Ukraine.
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