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	Will Avian Flu Trigger a Global Depression?   (July 3, 2005) Stories about the dangers of a flu pandemic arising from the avian flu currently scourging South Asia typically focus on references to the great flu pandemic of 1918-19 and forecasts of millions of deaths. The collapse of world trade and the world economy which would accompany such a pandemic receives less attention. The current issue of Foreign Affairs presents in frightening detail just how deadly such a virus might be (it kills 100% of all infected domestic chickens, and has killed over half of all infected humans), and just how destructive the disruption will prove to the world economy. Readers of this weblog know that various "economic cycles of history" theories (Kondratieff et. al.--see Financial Meltdown Watch in the sidebar) are forecasting a global depression within the next 5 or 6 years. While many assume the proximate cause will be financial-- inflation, the implosion of debt, etc.--the trigger might well be a global flu pandemic. As the SARS outbreak of 2003 proved, South-Asian economies are extraordinarily vulnerable to any disruption of travel and trade. SARS struck only 8,000 people, of whom 800 died, but it immediately withered travel and cost the region at least $40 billion. If the avian flu currently spreading through populations of Asian wild and domesticated birds does indeed mutate to the point it spreads via human-to-human contact, then history suggests up to one-third of all humanity could eventually be infected, and between 1% and 5% of those sickened will die. The economic impact of such a pandemic is beyond easy comprehension: as with SARS, schools would close, restaurants and theaters would be shut down, and travel to infected areas would dry up and blow away. While the pathway of viral mutation canot be predicted, the past two global flu pandemics (1958 and 1968) were avian flus which originated in South China. In 1968, it's estimated there were less than 20 million chickens in all of China; now that nation raises some 13 billion annually. Do you reckon there are more opportunities for an avian virus to jump to human now? The odds seems to favor it, and that's why experts consider it an inevitability. Frightening stuff, but important to contemplate. NOTE: An astute reader just recommended the book Devil's Flu: The World's Deadliest Influenza Epidemic and the Scientific Hunt for the Virus That Caused It by Pete Davies. * * * copyright © 2005 Charles Hugh Smith. All rights reserved in all media. I would be honored if you linked this wEssay to your site, or printed a copy for your own use. * * *
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