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	Why are we in this handbasket?   (September 30, 2005) I saw a bumper sticker recently which captures all too well the zeitgeist of the times: "Why are we in this handbasket, and where are we going?" The reference, perhaps obscure to some, is to the old saying that "we're going to Hell in a handbasket." The handbasket seems to be picking up velocity recently, and as readers of this modest little blog know, I have been agape for a long time at the bizarre sense of denial and unreality which has enveloped the nation. Before I begin the laundry list of denials which appear to finally be crumbling in the face of various realities, take a look at this archival photo of me at the age of 16 shooting hoops at our old plantation house on "Teachers Row" on the island of Lanai, Hawaii. Lanai High and Elementary School is visible on the right; teacher housing (my stepfather taught chemistry and math) was conveniently located adjacent to the school. By good fortune our bungalow had a regulation basketball hoop in the driveway. For the long shots, we had to set up in the street. The Pine Lads (our school basketball team) had many outstanding players in those years, and we went to the state championships both in 1970 and in 1971 (I'd moved to Oahu by then). Alas, I added very little to the team except comic relief and a cheering bench warmer, but my jumpshot form looks pretty good here. Note also the shadow of my brother Craig as he snapped the shot of the shot, and the tall Norfolk pine trees which line the central quandrant of Lanai City. OK, here's the connection between "going to Hell in a handbasket" and a photo from 1970: we were going to Hell in a handbasket, then, too. Herewith are various fantasies currently crumbling as the basket gains momentum: Fantasy: The U.S. economy, and indeed the global economy, is humming along in peachy-keen perfection. The reality: enormous imbalances and excesses are finally taking a toll. Let's see: personal income is a negative number for the third straight month, inflation is rising, oil refuses to drop back down to $60 a barrel, never mind $40, sales of new homes and autos plummeted in August (before the hurricanes, mind you, so don't blame Nature), the trade and Federal deficits are rising to unprecedented heights just as foreign governments seem to be tiring of propping up the rampant spending of American consumers and governments...the list of excesses is too long to recount here; just scroll down through this month's blog listings for a more complete list. Fantasy: Only a fringe of liberals and nutcases are questioning the war in Iraq. The reality: the American people at large are wondering if the war is "winnable" and if it is being mismanaged. The American people are remarkably resilient and patient when they see the need for patience and resilience. Thus we continue to station troops in Germany, Japan and Korea, 60 years after World War II--three generations--in order to maintain the stability of those regions. On the other hand, in 1970 the Vietnam War was still raging and the American people were beginning to doubt the management and ultimate cost of that war. Although the analogies between Vietnam and Iraq are largely false (but that is another entry), the salient point here is whether the American people support the war or not. It has been apparent for some time that the post-war planning was inadequate, and that the leadership of this nation fired or suppressed anyone who questioned the adequacy of their plan--to mention but one example of many, General Eric Shinseki. Gen. Shinseki, a combat veteran of Vietnam who is missing part of a limb as a result of his service to the nation, was convinced that we needed 200,000 or more ground troops to secure post-war Iraq. He was quickly snubbed by the chicken-hawks (those who never served or weaseled their way out of service during Vietnam) and shuffled off to retirement. Their over-reaching arrogance is now coming to haunt them--as it should. The losers, unfortunately, are our citizen-soldiers. This is not an opinion on the nature of the war or the conduct of the war--that is too complicated for this entry-- but simply a statement of fact that the American people are beginning to question their leaders' handling of the war. At some point, Whether the war is "winnable" or not will no longer matter, for once the American people no longer support it, it's politically untenable. Fantasy: The American people elected this leadership because they care about values more than any other issue. Reality: as the American economy crumbles beneath the weight of the excesses created by this leadership, Americans will "vote their pocketbooks" which will be much lighter as the recession takes hold and destroys their wealth (housing bubble pops, inflation eats up paychecks, consumer confidence plummets, taking spending with it, foreigners stop propping up the dollar which sinks, pushing interest rates up faster and higher than any pundit thought possible, and so on). The parallels to 1970 should not be dismissed too lightly. An increasingly unpopular war would run for another five years, costing thousands of lives and burdening the Treasury with deficits which triggered an inflationary spiral that ran for a decade. The war also contributed to the destruction of the two presidencies tasked with managing it. The top of the Bull Market in stocks occurred in 1966, four years before. (The recent top in the market was 2000, five years ago.) Unbeknownst to the pundits and politicos, a 17-year Bear Market was in progress beneath the seemingly placid waters of the 1970 economy. It would take another 13 years before the Dow Jones Industrial Average again reached 1,000, it's high-water mark in 1966. In those 13 years, the American people suffered from spikes in the cost of energy, inflation, rising interest rates, two deep recessions which cost millions their jobs and a "stagflation" which eroded wealth and earnings for 13 long years. If you don't see the parallels, well, you're not paying attention. But you will--you will. * * * copyright © 2005 Charles Hugh Smith. All rights reserved in all media. I would be honored if you linked this wEssay to your site, or printed a copy for your own use. * * *
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