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What's New
(as of January 8, 2005)
A New Feature Article in the S.F. Chronicle If you're interested in things Chinese or Asian, please check out my latest feature article in the S.F. Chronicle: China Ironies: An American Architect's Home in Suzhou New Essay: What This Country Needs Is A Good . . . Recession Read my latest essay on the sorry state of the U.S. economy: What This Country Needs Is A... Good Recession. Mea Culpa - Sort Of First off, let me issue a heartfelt "mea culpa" over calling the election wrong. The massive fraud known as "the U.S. economy" held together long enough for Mr. Bush to gain re-election. He was helped in large part by a deceptive Fed, which downplayed the threat of inflation and the effects of higher energy until after the election was safely in hand. 
My call for a downturn in the U.S. stock market also proved incorrect, as an echo of the dot-com euphoria of 1999 took hold and drove tech stocks skyward despite the lack of fundamentals to support such euphoria. As I write this on January 5, 2005, the stock market indices have dropped on huge volume for three days straight despite the nearly uniform view of market pundits than Jaunuary is going to be great, and the market will have a "healthy" growth in 2005 . . . they must mean "healthy" like a guy on life-support. There is nothing healthy about "growth" based on a torrent of borrowed money, staggering deficits and unprecendented current account deficits. It is instead a house of cards which is teetering on collapse-- a collapse which may finally be starting. A Peripatetic Year I logged a lot of miles both in the air and on foot in 2004: three trips to Hawaii, a wonderful trip to Virginia which included kayaking and fishing with my old friend Jim Erler and his family, two lengthy car-camping/hiking tours through the southwest National parks (including buffets at the Ahwahnee Hotel in Yosemite and several more in Las Vegas), a trip to China (Shanghai, Suzhou, Nanjing and hangzhou) in September, and then a wonderful tour through France in November with my brother. The fruits of my time in Paris (3rd visit in four years) are visible on this page, as I walked across the city in one day, snapping photos in a "Paris Transect." An article based on Arrol Gellner's fabulous flat in Suzhou will appear in the S.F. Chronicle on January 29. Oh, and I also burned 120,000 miles which had piled up in United Mileage Plus for three free tickets... a small victory, I reckon, before the major U.S. carriers dissolve or merge. The airline industry is one sick puppy, with no ready cure in sight. 
The Stock Market: Look Out Below (originally posted 9/17/04) I am still predicting a severe stock market decline (i.e. more than 20%) in the coming months. My reasoning can be found in a lengthy piece I've posted on my "feature articles") page: Breakdown: What the Stock Market Is Telling Us. Check it out and then start selling any equities you have: in IRAs, in 401ks, in any portfolio you control. You read it here first.... Shanghai Postcard 2004 Read my short essay on the underbelly of China's changing economy. Is This A Nation At War? Read my short essay on citizen sacrifice and war. A Nation in Denial Read my short essay on the major problems facing the nation which are currently being brushed aside by the leadership and citizenry alike. 
Recent Feature Articles My article on Japanese apartment design ran on November 20, 2004 in the S.F. Chronicle; it's based on our visit last year to our friend Kaya Takano in Nagano. My article on "transit villages" in the S.F. Chronicle Sunday Magazine made the cover in August (guess it was a slow news cycle). Coming Book Reviews A partial list of books I read in 2004 includes: Photos 2004 (in no particular order) "What's New: October 2004" "What's New: September 2004" "What's New: August 2004" "What's New: June 2004" "What's New: Feb. 2004" "What's New: Jan. 2004" "What's New: Sept./Oct. 2003" "What's New: July/Aug. 2003" "What's New: June 2003" "What's New: May 2003" "What's New: April 2003" "What's New: March 2003" "What's New: February 2003" |
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