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Writing/Film Dear Aspiring Writers: The Worst Advice You'll Ever Read A Literary Look at I-State Lines Spirited Away: Decay and Renewal An American Poem (Robinson Jeffers) Taoist Chinese Poems The Nelson Touch "It's all about oil, isn't it?" Kurosawa's High and Low A Bountiful Mutiny Howl's Moving Castle Thailand's Iron Ladies Trois Colours: Red The Thin Man: Thoroughly Modern Movies Why My Book Is Better Than the DaVinci Code Iranian Films: The Mirror Piratical Nonsense A Real Pirate Movie: Captain Blood 2005-06 archives 2007 archives Recommended Books American Identity American Identity Literary Contest Winners, 2006 (fiction and essays) Hapas: The New America Can You Tell What I am? Part I Can You Tell What I am? Part II Only in America Self-Reliance Your Tattoo in 50 Years The American House and Frank Lloyd Wright Cultural Commentaries On Hatred and Anti-Americanism Anti-Americanism Part 2 Anti-Americanism Part 3 French-Bashing Germany: We All Have Problems, But... Kroika! Chronicles This Blog Sells Out Doom and Gloom Sells The Kroika Mascot-"Auspicious Pet" Wal-Mart and Kroika Kroika and Starsbuck Take a Hit Kroika Ad 1 Kroika Ad 2 Kroika Ad 3 Kroika Ad 4 Kroika Makes Bid for Oreo (April 1) Unfolding Crises: Asia China: An Interim Report Shanghai Postcard 2004 Corruption and Avian Flu: China's Dynamic Duo Exporting the Real Estate Bubble to China Is the Bloom Off the China Rose? China Irony: Steel, Marx & Capital Curing The U.S. and China's Dysfunctional Relationship China and U.S. Inflation Trade with China: Making Out Like a Bandit Whither China? Will the Housing Bust Take Down China? China's Dependence on Exports to U.S.; Is China About to Pop? 2005-06 archives 2007 archives Battle for the Soul of America Katrina, Vietnam, Iraq: National Purpose, National Sacrifice Is This a Nation at War? A Nation in Denial Why Is This Such a Tepid Time? That Price Isn't Cheap, It's Subsidized The Most Hated Company in America U.S. Fascists Seek Ban on Cancer Vaccine The Truth About Christmas American Dream or American Nightmare? 2006 Sea Change Obesity and Debt Immigration Ironies U.S. Healthcare: Working Toward a Real Solution A Drug Industry Running Amok Where There Is Ruin 2005-06 archives 2007 archives Financial Meltdown Watch What This Country Needs Is a... Good Recession Are We Entering the Next Age of Turmoil? Why Inflation Appears Low Doubling Down on 5-Card No-See-Um A Rickety Global House of Cards Are Japan and Germany Truly on the Mend? Unprecedented Risk 2 Could One Rogue Trader Bring Down the Market? Worried about Inflation? Stop Measuring It Economy Great? Bah, Humbug Huge Deficits and Huge Profits: Coincidence? Who's The Largest Exporter? Three Snapshots of the U.S. Economy Loaded for Bear Comparing Nasdaq to Depression-Era Dow Who's Buying Treasury Bonds? And Why? Derivatives: Wall Street Fiddles, Rome Smolders Financial Chickens Coming Home to Roost Is the Stock Market on the Same Planet as the Economy? The Housing-Recession-Oil-Healthcare Connection Could We Have Deflation and Inflation At the Same Time? What We Know, What We Can Safely Predict Bankruptcy U.S.A.: Medicare, Greed and Collapse Sucker's Rally A Whiff of Apocalypse Where There Is Ruin II: Social Security 2005-06 archives 2007 archives Planetary Meltdown Watch The Immensity of Global Warming Sun Sets on Skeptics of Global Warming Housing Bubble Watch Charting Unaffordability A Monster of a Housing Bubble A Coup de Grace to the Economy Hidden Costs of the Housing Bubble Housing Bubble? What Bubble? Housing Bubble II Housing Bubble III: Pop! Housing Market Slips Toward Cliff Housing Market Demographics Housing: Catching the Falling Knife Five Stages of the Housing Bubble Derailing the Property Tax Gravy Train Bubbling Property Taxes Have You Checked Your Property Taxes Recently? Housing Bubble: Where's the Bottom? Housing Bubble: Bottom II The Housing - Inflation Connection The Coming Foreclosure Nightmare 1 How Many Foreclosures Will Hit the Market? Housing Wealth Effect Shifts Into Reverse Housing Bubble Bust Will Take Down the Global Economy The New Road to Serfdom: A Negative-Equity Mortgage The Housing-Savings-Recession Connection After the Bubble: How Low Will It Go? After the Bubble: Rents and Housing Values Why Post-Bubble Rents Matter After the Bubble: How Low Will We Go, Part II Housing: 10% Decline May Trigger Financial Ruin How to Buy a $450K Home for $750K Inflation and Housing: Calculating the Bust The Growing Financial Risks of the Housing Bubble Construction Defects: The Flood to Come? Construction Defects Part II Who Gets Hammered in the 2007 Housing Bust Real Estate Bust: The Exhaustion of Debt What Happens When Housing Employment Plummets? One More Hole in the Housing Bubble: Insurance Financial Kryptonite in a "Super-Strength" Housing Market Three Secrets to Unloading Property Today Welcome to Fantasyland: Housing's "Soft Landing" Why Is the Median House Price Still Rising? Why Median Prices Appear to be Rising? The Root Cause of the Housing Bubble Housing Dominoes Fall Twilight for Exurbia? Phase Transitions, Symmetry and Post-Bubble Declines Housing's Stairstep Descent 2005-06 archives 2007 archives Oil/Energy Crises Whither Oil? How much Is a Gallon of Gas Worth? The End of Cheap Oil Natural Gas, Naturally High Arab Oil Money and U.S. Treasuries: Quid Pro Quo? The C.I.A., Oil and the Wisdom of Crowds The Flutter of a Butterfly's Wings? A One-Two Punch to a Glass Jaw Running Out Of Oil vs. Running Out of Cheap Oil 2005-06 archives 2007 archives Outside the Box How to Make a Favicon Asian Emoticons In Memoriam: Winky Cosmos The Wheeled Vagabonds Geezer Rock Overload Paying for Web Content Light-As-Air Pancake Recipe In a Humorous Vein If Only Writers Had Uniforms Opening the Kimono Happiness for Sale: Jank Coffee Ten Guaranteed Predictions for 2010 Why My Book Is Better Than the DaVinci Code My Brand Management Stinks Design Follies The New Jank Coffee Shop Jank Coffee, Upscale Tropic Style One-Word Titles Complacency Nostalgia Lifespans Praxis Keys to Affordable Housing U.S. Conservation & China Steve Toma, Me & Skil 77s: 30 years of Labor Real Science in the Bolivian Forest Deforestation and Sustainable Forestry The Solar Economy (book) The Problem with Techno-Fixes I Love Technology, I Hate Technology How To Blow off Web Ads and More 2005-06 archives 2007 archives Health, Wealth & Demographics Beauty of the Augmented (Korean) Kind Demographics and War The Healthiest Cold Cereal: Surprise! 900 Miles to the Gallon Are Our Cities Making Us Fat? One Serving of Deception Is Obesity an Inflammatory Response? Demographics & National Bankruptcy The Decline of Europe: A Demographic Done Deal? Are the Risks of Obesity Overstated? Healthcare: Unaffordable Everywhere Medication Nation The New Disease We Just Know You've Got Can You Can Tell Which Pill Is Fake? Bankruptcy U.S.A.: Medicare, Greed and Collapse The 10 Secrets to Permanent Weight Loss 2005-06 archives 2007 archives Landscapes Selling the Landscape The Downside of Density Building Heights and Arboral Roots Terroir: France & California L.A.: It's About Cheap Oil The Last Redwood Airport Walkabouts Waimea Canyon, Yosemite, Camping & Pancakes Nourishment The French Village Bakery Ideas What Is Happiness? Our Education System: a Factory Metaphor? Understanding Globalization: Braudel Can You Create Creativity? Do Average People Know More Than Their Leaders? On The Impermanence of Work Flattening the Knowledge Curve: The "Googling" Effect Human Bandwidth and Knowledge Iraqi Guangxi Splogs, Blogs and "News" "There is no alternative to being yourself" Is There a Cycle to War? Leisure, Time and Valentines Is the Web a Giant Copy Machine? Science Matters Anti-Missile Defense: Boost Phase Vulnerability History The Strolling Bones: Rock of Ages Bad Karma: Election Fraud 1960 Hiroshima: First Use All the Tea in China, All the Ginseng in America Friday Quiz Pet Obesity The Origins of Carbonara Organic Farms Oil and Renewable Energy Human Diseases Wine and Alzheimers Biggest Consumers of Chocolate 2005-06 archives 2007 archives Essential Books The Misbehavior of Markets 
Boiling Point (Global Warming) 
Our Stolen Future: How We Are Threatening Our Fertility, Intelligence and Survival 
How We Know What Isn't So 
Fewer: How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future 
The Coming Generational Storm: What You Need to Know about America's Economic Future 
The Third Chimpanzee: The Evolution and Future of the Human Animal 
The Future of Life 
Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak 
The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies 
Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy 
The Solar Economy: Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Global Future 
The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures 
Running On Empty: How The Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do About It 
Feeling Good: The New Mood Therapy Revised and Updated  .
The Fourth Turning 
Recommended Books More book reviews Archives: weblog August 2007 weblog July 2007 weblog June 2007 weblog May 2007 weblog April 2007 weblog March 2007 weblog February 2007 weblog January 2007 weblog December 2006 weblog November 2006 weblog October 2006 weblog September 2006 weblog August 2006 weblog July 2006 weblog June 2006 weblog May 2006 weblog April 2006 weblog March 2006 weblog February 2006 weblog January 2006 weblog December 2005 weblog November 2005 weblog October 2005 weblog September 2005 weblog August 2005 weblog July 2005 weblog June 2005 weblog May 2005 What's New, 2/03 - 5/05 
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This Week's Theme: The Rot Within II The Slow Strangulation Death of a False God: Debt-Based "Prosperity" September 28, 2007 Nothing in the "news" persuades me that borrowing more money and easing credit standards will save the worshippers of a false god: cheap, easy credit. Americans have slavishly worshipped at the feet of this golden idol for seven long years, and if you'll forgive the Biblical reference, these seven "fat" years of gorging on debt are about to be followed by seven "lean" years (or maybe 14 years, the crystal ball is hazy on that point) in which debt is repudiated and people begin saving out of fear for their future. Astute reader Lindy A. shared these thoughts recently: Your September 20th comments are timely and deadly accurate. Indeed, my family and I have thought for some time:In contrast to this common sense (thank you, Lindy), here is the typical standard-issue status quo economist (as quoted in Barrons): Fear Seems to Be Fleeting by Michael T. Darda, chief economist, MKM Partners: FORWARD-LOOKING FINANCIAL-MARKET INDICATORS are all pointing up: The Treasury curve has steepened considerably, risk spreads have come down significantly from peak levels, commodity prices are melting up again, and equity markets are moving higher.In other words: blah blah blah. Everything's great! The future's so bright we gotta wear shades! No recession, equity markets will go up strongly a sixth year in a row with endlessly growing profits and stock prices! Meanwhile, back in reality, this is what I see with my own eyes: Note that these are not people with subprime mortgages which are re-setting--these are high wage earners with standard expenses in a "secretly inflationary" "tax the living heck out of the high-wage earner" economy. Please spare me the gobblydigook about rate spreads and all the statistics and indicators. Let's stick to simple fundamental facts: 1. 70% of the U.S. economy is consumer spending. 2. U.S. consumers are either strapped, heading for bankruptcy or about to get strapped. But complacency reigns supreme, as evidenced by this chart of the VIX (a.k.a "fear index") 
Is this a chart of complacency reigning supreme forever, or complacency about to be shattered by reality in October? Let's wait for auto sales, inflation numbers, gasoline prices, profit warnings, retail sales and all the other bogus/manipulated numbers for September. Maybe even the spinmeisters will be unable to mask the rot as the false god of ever-rising debt and "easy terms" borrowing by individuals, corporations and government alike topples under its own weight. Thank you, Steve A., ($50) for your second generous donation to this humble site. I am greatly honored by your contribution and readership. All contributors are listed below in acknowledgement of my gratitude. Doom-and-Gloom trumps complacency any day, so why not-- The Slow Strangulation Death of a False God: Debt-Based "Prosperity" (September 28, 2007) Production Versus Consumption: Incentives, Soulless Work and a FIRE Economy (September 27, 2007) Credit Markets: Unregulated and Pathologically Addicted to Lying (September 26, 2007) Privatizing Profits, Socializing Risk: Hypocrisy and Housing (September 25, 2007) Homeowners, Defective Houses and Big Builders: Justice Is Not Blind (September 24, 2007) The Grateful Dead Inflation Index (September 22, 2007) Surprise Air Attack Destroys Syrian Nuke Site (September 21, 2007) 1984 + 23 = 2007 (September 20, 2007) Something Has Changed (Northern Rock) (September 19, 2007) The Closing of the U.S. Home ATM Dooms the Global Economy (September 18, 2007) The Rot Within (or: We Are The Frog in the Pot) (September 17, 2007) The Millionth Visitor--You (and: Stock Market Hat Trick) (September 14, 2007) Trade Imbalances and the Dollar (September 13, 2007) A Culture of Deception and Fantasy (September 12, 2007) Will Foreign Owners Dump U.S. Stocks and Bonds? (September 11, 2007) The Home ATM (a.k.a. Equity Extraction) Is Broken (September 10, 2007) The Big One Just Hit (September 8, 2007) What Can We Do About Peak Oil? (September 7, 2007) Who Wins in the Housing Bust? (September 6, 2007) The Moral Argument Against All Bailouts (September 5, 2007) Why Any Real Bailout Is Impossible (September 4, 2007) Poor Diet and The Poor (August 31, 2007) Living in Extraordinary Times (Peak Oil) (August 30, 2007) A Quick Glance at Gold (August 29, 2007) Seeking Relative Outperformance (August 28, 2007) Financial Extinctions: The Subprime Meteorite Has Hit (August 27, 2007) To view August entries, go to weblog August 2007. 
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wEssay noun, combination of 'web' and 'essay,' denoting a short online essay which exploits the hyperlinks, interfaces and interactive capabilities of the World Wide Web; coined by Charles Hugh Smith on May 1, 2005, in Berkeley California. Aphorisms I like: "Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited." (George Soros) "The way of the Tao is reversal." (Lao Tzu) "Chance favours the prepared mind.” (Louis Pasteur) "It is neither necessary to hope to undertake, nor to succeed to persevere." (French proverb) "You must have a willingness to do something when everyone else is petrified. You must learn the lesson of following logic over emotion." (Warren Buffett) "Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." (Winston Churchill) "May a fair road always be open to you." (CHS, April 2, 2006) All content and images copyright © 2006 - 2007 Charles Hugh Smith, All rights reserved in all media, unless otherwise credited or noted.
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current issue 9/07
This Month's commentaries:
9/10/07 9/03/07 9/01/07 This Month's Journal Essays Icons of my youth: Thomas Hardy Protagoras Icons of my youth: Sailing to Byzantium Protagoras In Praise of the Standing Lug Protagoras RS archives: August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 August Essays The Economic Significance of Unlimited Derivative Works in the Software Business by Protagoras In praise of the Santoku knife by Protagoras A Transcontinental Journey John Joss Kissing Frogs: The Greatest Risk (An author on writing) John Joss Peak Oil and Soil by Eric Andrews The Great Unraveling by Chuck D. The TQM Diet (satire) by Protagoras July Essays Loyalty, Impeachment and 'Supporting the President' by Harun I. Icons of my youth: Frank Leavis by Protagoras Equal Killing Rights (satire) by Protagoras June Essays Global Warming: Our Story So Far Michael Goodfellow The Hockey Stick Breaks by Protagoras Love in the Time of Syphilis by Protagoras May Essays What to do about Health Care? Michael Goodfellow Memo to the next UK Prime Minister by Protagoras Political Elites & Some Predictions Michael Goodfellow The Fort Dix Terror Plot by Harun I. The French Presidential Elections by John Kinsella Wal-Mart, disequilibria, and global economic dislocation by Harun I. The Recent UK Elections by Protagoras The Evolution of Social Behaviour by Protagoras Is Everybody Happy? Michael Goodfellow Memories of Lana'i by Bill Murath
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